A significant number of voters in 2025’s statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia voted for Democrats this year despite casting their ballots for President Donald Trump in 2024. Now, some of them are hinting at what types of candidates they aim to support in next year’s midterms.
NBC News reported Friday that focus groups interviewing voters who pivoted from Trump to Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia found that while those swing voters were sharply critical of both major parties, they still identified several criteria that they preferred in candidates. The 14 voters themselves are 12 self-described independents, along with one Democrat and one Republican.
According to NBC’s report, the group was drawn to Governors-elect Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) due to their moderate posture. Swing voters viewed more positively than the Democratic Party’s tarnished brand, which they described with words like “dishonest,” “weak,” “unfocused,” “self-serving,” “wishy-washy” and “ineffective.” And they told interviewers that they voted for Trump in 2024 largely because they viewed him as better-equipped to manage the economy compared to Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who they described as “unqualified” and “out of touch,” per NBC.
The voters also noted that while they didn’t approve of Trump’s policies or his failure to address rising costs of living, they viewed their votes as more pro-Sherrill and pro-Spanberger than anti-Trump.
“I mean, look, I’m a Republican, but let me tell you, if somebody is checking all the boxes for me, if they’re a Democrat, I’m going to go with my gut and what I feel,” 52-year-old New Jersey voter Cynthia G. said. “And Mikie is just proven to me. Naval officer, formal federal prosecutor, mother of four. She’s tough, but she’s like the quiet storm. She’ll get things done.”
“[Spanberger] was the closest thing to what you can call a moderate nowadays. She worked across the aisle. She wasn’t an extremist,” said 40-year-old Richmond, Virginia resident Bruce L.
Brick, New Jersey resident Michael C., who is 60 years old, said he voted for Sherrill “because of her veteran status. Because being in the military, when you have a job that needs to get done, you get it done, you make sure you find a way to do it.”
Syracuse University conducted the focus groups with the 14 voters in conjunction with research firms Engagious and Sago, which NBC observed for its report. Engagious president Rich Thau told the outlet that for the voters they interviewed, overall candidate quality mattered far more than any other single issue.
“The most important lesson for both parties in 2026 is to not run flawed candidates,” Thau said. “While affordability, political moderation, and President Trump’s job performance all mattered in Virginia’s and New Jersey’s gubernatorial races, what mattered most to swing voters was candidate quality.”
“It’s easy to see these Democratic wins in Virginia and New Jersey as a referendum on President Trump, but what these swing voters told us is not quite that simple,” said Margaret Talev, who is the director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship. “Moderation, competency and personal appeal is the combination they crave.”
Click here to read NBC’s full report.
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