Over the last 20 years, something keeps happening to the party that wins a presidential election.
It starts losing.
While it might seem unimaginable in the wake of a triumphant victory, the winning party in the last five presidential elections has gone on to lose each of the next five midterms — and four of the next five presidential elections.
If the last month — or really, the last year — of election results is any indication, today’s Republicans are following the same path. Almost every election night this year has gone poorly for them. They’ve lost or badly underperformed over and over — including on Tuesday in a special congressional election in Tennessee, where with nearly all of the vote counted the Republicans led by nine percentage points in a district that voted for President Trump last year by 22 points.
A 13-point shift may seem extraordinary or jaw-dropping. For Republicans this year, it’s simply the norm. Heading into Tuesday night, Republicans had underperformed Mr. Trump’s showing by an average of 13 points across dozens of state and federal special elections. And while the Republican Party’s problem in special elections is particularly pronounced — in part because Democrats enjoy a major advantage among the most motivated voters — this basic story isn’t new. It has played out for every president over the last two decades.
Like other recent presidents, Mr. Trump has pushed too far in pursuit of an ideological agenda. In doing so, he either alienated many of the voters who put him over the top or neglected the issues, like affordability, that brought them to his side in the first place. His approval rating has fallen, and voters remain dissatisfied with the state of the country — as they have been without interruption for more than 20 years. Together, the backlash against Mr. Trump and simmering dissatisfaction has yielded a familiar political landscape:
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Mr. Trump’s approval rating is at 41 percent; on average, the prior five presidential winners were at 42 percent at this point in their terms.
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The Democrats lead by about five points in the early generic midterm polls; on average, the party out of power led by four points at this stage after the last five elections.
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The Democrats ran about eight points better in the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia than those states’ lean with respect to the country in the last election; on average, the party out of power ran seven points ahead in New Jersey and Virginia governor’s races without incumbents.
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Democrats have run 17 points better in special congressional elections than those districts’ lean in the last election; on average, the party out of power ran six points ahead over the last two decades. This lopsided Democratic edge at least partly reflects the party’s edge in low-turnout elections, but that will still help the party fare well in the relatively low-turnout midterms.
These conditions have usually added up to big gains for the party out of power. On average over 20 years, these parties have won the House popular vote by six percentage points in the midterms — a margin that would easily swamp even a successful version of the G.O.P.’s faltering redistricting campaign. They’ve also fared an average of nearly five points better in the next presidential election than the last, including winning back the White House in every case but 2012.
After the last year of agonizing debates over the Democrats’ future, there’s something painfully simple — even mundane — about the political opportunity that’s opening up for them. They didn’t have to do anything. But historically, electoral comebacks haven’t been built on fixing what went wrong in the last election, like moderating on the issues or avoiding an unpopular stance. They’ve been built on exploiting new political opportunities and a desire for change.
With a year to go until the midterms, there’s still plenty of time for Republicans’ political fortunes to improve. Even so, it won’t be easy for them to get off the usual path. When presidents have rebounded after early lows, it usually happens slowly — and only once the president takes his foot off the gas and allows a rising economic tide and a favorable contrast with his opposition to lift his approval ratings. At the moment, none of this seems especially likely.
Most presidents nowadays don’t simply stop pushing their partisan agenda, and Mr. Trump’s extraordinary reliance on executive power means he is less likely to be slowed by the legislative gridlock that impeded prior presidents. The economy doesn’t seem likely to lift the president’s fortunes anytime soon, either. Voters remain in a sour mood on the economy, and many of Mr. Trump’s policies — immigration restrictions, high tariffs and large deficits — tend to put upward pressure on the cost of labor, goods and debt. At best, Mr. Trump is vulnerable to being blamed for rising prices, even if his policies aren’t at fault; at worst, his own policies could be making his party’s political problems worse.
And while today’s Democrats have had their problems, nominating extreme candidates that could dampen their advantage isn’t usually one of them. They tend to nominate broadly acceptable candidates in key states and districts, like Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey.
The party’s challenges are more likely to be felt in the next presidential election. While the party out of power has won four of the last five presidential elections, the elections have usually been close. Unlike midterms, general elections tend to be more like a choice between the two parties than a referendum on one. They’re preceded by a potentially divisive primary for good measure. And it remains to be seen whether the political opportunities created by Mr. Trump’s presidency will heal the Democratic Party’s divisions or exacerbate them.
But for Democrats, all of those trials lie ahead. While individual Democratic candidates could certainly blow otherwise winnable races, off-year elections tend to be fairly straightforward referendums on the party in power. Even the G.O.P. of the Obama era, which in hindsight was on the verge of a hostile takeover, managed enormous victories in 2010 and 2014.
The Democrats have plenty of challenges, but it may not feel like it in 2026, much as it didn’t this November in New Jersey and Virginia, or Tuesday night in Tennessee.
Nate Cohn is The Times’s chief political analyst. He covers elections, public opinion, demographics and polling.
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