CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Republicans should be “running for the hills” after Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th district.
Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly nine points, a much smaller margin than in previous elections: The deep-red district went for Trump by 17, 15, and 22 points in 2016, 2020, and 2024, respectively.
“This is a thirteen-point gain for the Democrats, in terms of the margin, and excuse time for the Republicans is over,” Enten said on Wednesday’s CNN News Central.
The 37-year-old data guru adopted a mocking tone to needle hypothetical right-leaning pundits who might downplay the result of Tuesday’s election.
“I hear all about these special elections. ‘Oh, the turnout’s so low. It’s not representative of what would happen in a midterm election.’ The turnout last night in Tennessee’s 7th district was equal to the turnout in the 2022 midterm elections,” he said. “The ‘Blue Wave?’ It seems to be building right out of the center of Tennessee.”
If extrapolated nationwide, a 13-point swing could put deep red seats in jeopardy for the GOP come the 2026 midterms—and 13 points is on the low side of leftward shifts America has seen in special elections since the start of Trump’s second term.
Enten revealed that Democrats made gains of 17, 23, 16, 28, and 17 points, respectively, in special elections in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and Virginia.
“I looked at the stats,” he said. “If you had a 13-point shift, like we saw in Tennessee, and you applied that to the 2024 presidential map, we’re talking about a gain for Democrats of north of forty seats.”
While a forty-seat swing sounds dramatic, it’s in line with what other data analysts are saying. After the Tennessee election result came in, veteran Republican strategist Matt Whitlock predicted a 30 to 35-seat swing toward Democrats if Republicans don’t right the ship by 2026.
Enten also outlined how Tennessee’s result continued a trend that should have Democrats feeling bullish about the 2026 midterms.
“We actually have history to show that what happens in special elections doesn’t just stay in special elections,” he said.
“It spills over to the midterm results. I just keep going to this. When a party outperformed in special elections since 2005, five out of five times, they went on to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. What happened last night in Tennessee is a very, very bad omen for Republicans and a very, very good omen for Democrats.”
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