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Talk to just about any Democratic strategist these days and you’ll get more than a little happy talk. Sure, they view the first year of Donald Trump’s second term as an unmitigated disaster, but on the bright side, his standing with voters is lower than ever. Even his Republican base is exhausted by his chaos-laden lurch from grievance to gulag and back.
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Talk to Republicans and they can hardly argue with those facts. Even in getting their way during this fall’s history-making government shutdown, the GOP still bore more of the blame in voters’ eyes. Republicans know they’re in a rut and there’s no point denying it.
That’s why today’s special election in deep-red Tennessee has both parties watching more closely than is typical for a race where Black Friday shoppers would typically outpace balloting. The lone independent poll of the Nashville-area district found Republican Matt Van Epps ahead by 2 points in a district Trump carried by 22 just a little more than a year ago. That helps to explain why Speaker Mike Johnson started his week on the ground there, and why Trump himself picked up Johnson’s cell and spoke to a rally via speaker phone.
“The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching your district,” Trump said Monday. The result on Tuesday “has got to show that the Republican Party is stronger than it’s ever been,” the President said.
Democrats see this race as an opportunity not necessarily to win but to at least jam Trump by shrinking Van Epps margin of victory to single digits. They recently went on the air in the district with $1 million in new ads—a change from other special elections this year and a signal that the House race in Trump country is more competitive than it should be. State Rep. Aftyn Behn is running stronger than expected for the seat vacated when Rep. Mark Green quit Congress for a job in the private sector. Van Epps, an Army veteran who flew helicopters and served as a state commissioner, too is getting help from outside groups hoping to salvage the race.
The race may shape more than who represents the Tennessee 7th District. Johnson is operating with razor-thin margins that may soon get worse. As balloting began Tuesday, Republicans enjoyed a 219-213 majority in the House. Come next month, Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, fed up with Washington’s toxic politics, plans to head home to Georgia a year before her term ends. Upcoming special elections in Texas and Virginia are primed to give Democrats plausibly easy victories, and Greene’s race could get dicey for Republicans. In fact, it’s not impossible to see Republicans coming within one vote of losing the majority sometime in 2025. (And that’s before you remember that 24 House Republicans have already announced that they will not be seeking re-election next year.)
To be sure, Democrats are aware they’re still talking about Tennessee. Privately, they’re passing around internal polling that shows them between 7 and 10 points down—losing but maybe possibly within striking distance of a potential upset if lightning strikes.
Trump won that district with 67% of the vote last year, while Green won with 60%. Republicans have a built-in voter registration of about 10 points. None of those figures, however, stopped Kamala Harris from making a stop in the district last month to boost Behn or Democrats working hard to nationalize the race, much as they did this spring with a winning state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.
And then there’s the fact that candidates and consultants around the country will view tonight’s results as a sign of GOP health heading into next year’s midterms. It suddenly becomes easier to justify the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC dropping $1.5 million on pro-Van Epps ads, as well as outside groups Conservatives for American Excellence and Club for Growth Action dropping six-figure buys each.
Electorally, Democrats are enjoying a moment. They prevailed in off-year statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia last month, and New York City elected a democratic socialist as its next Mayor. In California, voters sided with Democrats’ nakedly partisan effort to redraw congressional maps to add to the party’s ranks. In four special elections ahead of all that, Democratic candidates expanded their margin by an average of 16 points over the 2024 showings. Compared with Harris, last year’s White House nominee, Democratic candidates this year ran 18 points ahead of her.
Despite tailwinds in Tennessee, the fact remains that Democrats are facing voters with some of their lowest polling on the books; CNN’s survey last month found Democrats’ unfavorable levels the highest going back more than 30 years of network numbers.
Still, Trump is faring even worse. CNN’s survey found 4-in-5 Democrats said their votes next year would be to send a message of rejection to Trump.
So as the political nerds dust off their vote spreadsheets for one last go this calendar year, it’s worth seeing the Tennessee race in the bigger context of what this may mean for Johnson’s—and Trump’s—majority in the House. “We think what will happen here will be a bellwether for the midterms next year,” Johnson told reporters on Monday. If Trump is to have any more legislative wins before next year’s midterms, he needs his allies in the House to see his fortunes and theirs as the same. Given what we’ve seen this year, that’s far from guaranteed.
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The post Why Tennessee’s Special Election Has Republican’s Nervous and Democrats Giddy appeared first on TIME.
