House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has navigated a difficult year with a razor-thin majority where he had to wrangle every last vote on key issues, and frequently had to juggle unexpected vacancies. But things are about to get a whole lot worse for him, one congressional staffer predicted Tuesday on X.
That’s because no fewer than 18 members of the House Republican caucus are running for other offices next year, and can’t be counted on to always be in Washington for critical votes.
Aaron Fritschner, a top staffer for Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA), flagged this in response to a Punchbowl News analysis of Johnson’s “brutal” 11 months ahead, which includes yet another shutdown fight looming over the next two months, and rising discontent from the GOP rank and file and even other House GOP leaders about the direction of the caucus.
“Punchbowl’s rundown here is good, and there’s another problem for Johnson that’ll creep up next year: attendance,” wrote Fritschner. “Republicans have 18 members running for other offices next year, compared to just 8 Dems. Campaigning will keep them out of DC, a significant vote math issue.”
Among those 18 members are a number of gubernatorial campaigns, including Reps. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), Byron Donalds (R-FL), John James (R-MI), Tom Tiffany (R-WI), Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Elise Stefanik (R-NY); Senate campaigns, including Reps. Andy Barr (R-KY), Barry Moore (R-AL), Ashley Hinson (R-IA), and Buddy Carter (R-GA); and Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), who is seeking the nomination for state attorney general.
All of this comes as both Democrats and Republicans await Tuesday night’s results in a highly-watched special election for a vacant congressional seat in Tennessee, which polls have flagged as neck and neck despite President Donald Trump having carried the district by over 20 points.
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