CNN data analyst Harry Enten predicts trouble for the GOP ahead of Tuesday’s special congressional election in Tennessee’s seventh district.
“Even a close GOP win would be a bad sign for them because what we’re dealing with is a district that all three times Donald Trump was on the ballot, he won it by double digits,” said Enten on Tuesday’s CNN News Central.
As Enten explained, Tennessee’s seventh district ought to be a GOP slam dunk. Trump won the district by 17, 15, and 22 points in 2016, 2020, and 2024, respectively.
However, the special election to fill the seat vacated by Republican Mark Green’s resignation has proven to be much closer than expected. An Emerson poll released on Nov. 26 had Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps up only two points over Democrat Aftyn Behn.
For Enten, the surprisingly tight nature of the race is reflected in the prediction market odds.
“Look, the Democrat has a 15 percent chance of winning in that race, which ain’t nothing in a district that Donald Trump won by 22 points,” said Enten, 37.
“But here, I think, is the key nugget on this side of the ledger, and that is a GOP win by under 10 points: there is a 68 percent chance of that. There is a more than two-thirds chance that the Republican candidate, yes, they win, but they win by a significantly lower margin than Donald Trump.”
“We’re talkin’ about a huge shift to the left,“ exclaimed Enten to CNN News Central host John Berman. “We’re talkin’ about a more than 80 percent chance that there’s a clear double-digit shift to the left, and a 15 percent chance that a Democrat actually wins in a district that Donald Trump won by 22 points? That just shows you how bad the environment is right now for Republicans.”
The dramatic leftward shift would be consistent with Democrats’ performance in special elections since the start of Donald Trump’s second presidency.
“What the prediction markets suggest would happen in Tennessee is not happening in isolation,” said Enten. “It is happening all over the congressional map.”
Enten suggested that these trends spell near-certain doom for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
“When a party outperforms in special elections since 2005, five out of five times they went on to win the House of Representatives,” he said.
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