A former Republican Speaker of the House issued a stark warning to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) on Monday about the party’s chances of maintaining its majority following the 2026 midterm election.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy discussed the Republican Party’s high turnover rate heading into the 2026 midterm in an interview with Axios. An analysis conducted by Axios and NPR found that Republicans are retiring at a 2-to-1 pace compared to Democrats, with 26 House members announcing their departure from the chamber during the first 11 months of the second Trump administration.
“The time to watch is really between Thanksgiving and Christmas. That’s when you see the most departures,” former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Axios. “I’d always go after members in that period to give them a taste of what was to come, if they decided to stay for another cycle.”
McCarthy’s comments come at a time when Democrats appear to have the momentum going into the midterms. Democrats recently won a spate of high-profile races, including the Governor’s office in both New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Democrats are also poised to be competitive in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District in an upcoming special election, a district that President Donald Trump carried by more than 20 points in the 2024 election.
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