One of the questions I get asked the most goes like this: When are Republican elected officials finally going to start standing up to Donald Trump?
And my answer is always the same: As soon as Republican base voters start to turn on him.
Well, we may be there—or heading in that direction.
A new Gallup poll released over the weekend shows Trump at just 36% approval, the lowest he has been in Gallup data in his second term—and very near the lowest ebb the polling firm has ever measured (34% approval after January 6, 2021).
But the key is the approval numbers broken out by party. In Gallup’s poll last month, Trump was at 91% among Republicans. Now he’s at 84%.
Look, this isn’t the end of the world. If Trump stays in the mid to high 80s among Republican base voters, it is very unlikely there will be a stampede of elected GOP officials breaking with him publicly.
But that trend line is not encouraging for Trump. One of Trump’s greatest strengths has always been the iron grip with which he holds Republican voters; to drop seven points in a month among your hardcore supporters is worrisome. And it at least opens up the possibility that the GOP base—or at least some significant chunk of it—is tiring of him.
Lambast the party’s leaders as unprincipled lackies if you like, but they are focused on getting reelected—and with a president liked by 9 in 10 of their base voters, they just aren’t going to split from him.
But at 80% approval? Or 75% approval? That prospect becomes much more likely.
It’s important to note that this is one poll—albeit a very good one with a long track record. It’s possible those wavering base voters will get back in line with Trump by next month.
But watch the Republican approval number. It’s the codex to understanding if—or when—the party begins to move beyond Trump.
Want more ball and strike calling—no matter what uniform the batter at the plate is wearing? Check out Chris Cillizza’s Substack and YouTube channel.
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