It doesn’t take a football wiz to know that there’s plenty of contrast between the Giants and the Patriots in 2025.
From culture to execution, Mike Vrabel has swiftly revived the Patriots’ (10-2) dominant brand that was on hiatus for the last few seasons. It’s made for a three-game lead in the AFC East heading into Week 13.
That’s opposed to the Giants (2-10), a team bereft of identity that has pink-slipped their coach and defensive coordinator, all while being mired by injuries. No surprise it all amounted to missing the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.
But aside from the numbers and results, there’s a difference between them that hasn’t been talked about enough, and that’s the strength of schedules. No disrespect to Drake Maye and his NFL MVP campaign that reflects the second-shortest odds (+360) on the market, but the Patriots have benefited from the NFL’s easiest schedule to date.
The Giants, who came into the year with the most difficult projected schedule, grade out at sixth overall.
It’s not to say the Pats are entirely smoke and mirrors, but there’s more nuance behind their record as a team that has leaned on winning late in ball games.
On the other hand, if football was a three-quarter game, this is a different season for the freewheeling Giants. They’ve manufactured a second-best overall six opening-drive scores and have led the likes of the Lions as 14.5-point underdogs.
Jaxson Dart returns under center on “Monday Night Football” to offer Big Blue more stability and upside after missing the last two games due to a concussion. Dart has been the only ray of hope in a quagmire of dysfunction; the Giants average 1.4 more yards per play with him than without him.
With the all-volatile Jameis Winston last week, the Giants led the league with 10 completions of at least 20 yards. Plug Dart’s quicker release and off-platform arm talent back into the equation, and the explosive plays should come readily.
It’s hard to offer any support to the Giants without disclaiming their historically poor defense that leaks 28 points per game and is allergic to the run.
The silver lining is that the Patriots’ offensive line, which has allowed the sixth-most sacks overall, will be without Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. I expect the Giants’ new defensive coordinator, Charles Bullen, to exploit this by calling a more aggressive scheme against Maye, who has shown fatigue with four picks in his last five games.
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The Giants haven’t been a blitz-heavy force, sacking the quarterback just over two times per game, though Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence have favorable individual matchups to collapse the pocket and force Maye into hurried throws.
For all their flaws, the Giants have been a profitable team ATS, pacing themselves to 7-5 overall and 4-1 with spreads of 7.5 points or more.
With a bye on tap for the Pats ahead of facing the almighty Bills, could you ask for a bigger trap?
The pick: Giants +7.5 (-115, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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