Chuck Thies is a D.C.-based political consultant.
Nearly 20 years have passed since a Washington mayoral election was held without an incumbent on the ballot. That contest, in 2006, was primarily litigated around a single issue: education.
Hold that thought.
On Nov. 25, Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser announced her decision to not seek reelection. She did so somewhat quietly, choosing Thanksgiving week to issue a statement and participating in only two interviews.
The campaign to replace the Democratic mayor will not be as quiet or as controlled. The 2026 election comes at a pivotal moment for the city. The nation’s capital is in crisis; not a five-alarm blaze, but rather an underground tire fire that’s eating away at the District’s raison d’être. A city that thrives largely because it is home to an ever-growing federal government and accompanying economic activity is facing the reverberations of President Donald Trump’s downsizing and decentralizing of the bureaucracy.
With the mayoral field now wide open, who will step into the race? Recently, two names have been bandied about: D.C. Council members Janeese Lewis George (D-Ward 4) and Kenyan R. McDuffie (I-At Large). Lewis George reportedly is on the cusp of launching a bid in the style of fellow democratic socialist and New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.
McDuffie, more of a centrist, has been happy to be in the discussion, but coy about his intentions. His interest in the job, however, is nothing new. Twelve years ago, after interviewing him on my radio program and getting a strong sense of his long-term ambitions, I dubbed him “Mayor McDuffie.”
Lewis George and McDuffie are unlikely to face off one-on-one. Here are some other potential entries in what could swell into a crowded field.
Council member Trayon White Sr. (D-Ward 8), currently indicted and awaiting trial, is said to be considering a campaign, and why not? The June 2026 Democratic primary would be the third ballot on which his named appeared since being arrested on bribery charges in August 2024. So far, White has two wins and zero losses in those contests
Council member Robert C. White Jr. (D-At Large), who ran for mayor against Bowser in 2022, has been campaigning for the delegate to Congress seat currently held by Democrat Eleanor Holmes Norton. It’s fair to speculate that he could pivot to the mayoral contest, hoping to land the job he really wants.
Another candidate in the congressional delegate race is Brooke Pinto (D-Ward 2). Could she shift to the ensuing battle royale for mayor? Pinto has established herself as a voice of reason, if not the adult in the room, on the council. A source close to Bowser told me that earlier in the year, Bowser encouraged Pinto to think about running for mayor.
Beyond the current crop of council members, who else might be eyeballing a bid? Surely there are former elected officials who woke up the morning after Bowser’s announcement and saw a future mayor in the mirror. District voters, however, have a history of rejecting comeback candidates not named Marion Barry.
Is there a figure from the business world or a wealthy resident who can fund a viable candidacy? Does the District need, or want, a mayor a la Mike Bloomberg? There is plenty of time for such a candidate to emerge. It would behoove a fresh face to let the field assemble and start tearing each other apart. Then arrives the knight in shining armor, untarnished, to save the day.
It has happened before. In 1998, three council members fought for months until Anthony Williams entered the race just in time to qualify for the ballot. He quickly caught up to and surpassed the field, ultimately winning the Democratic primary handily.
There is an abundance of issues for the candidates to wrangle over. In the wake of the tragic shooting of two National Guard members near the White House last week, the Trump administration’s involvement in District affairs — and how it should be handled by a mayor — will surely be debated. However, will this be the issue on which candidates clearly distinguish themselves from one another? Despite the recent tragedy and its gravity, I think not. In a city where 93 percent of voters didn’t support Trump, opposing the president is to be expected.
Recall that earlier I asked you keep something in mind: Education reform was the central issue the last time a District mayoral race didn’t include an incumbent. With Adrian Fenty’s win came high hopes for rapid improvement in D.C. schools. That didn’t happen. In fact, under three different mayors, progress has been measured in the tiniest of increments. Yes, many schools have been renovated or rebuilt, but achievement shortfalls and chronic truancy remain dire problems.
It is difficult to overstate how important education is to District voters with children or planning a family.
Free advice, to what is sure to be a crowded field of aspirants to replace Bowser: The 2006 mayoral election might be your road map to victory.
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