In a recent book on the role of empathy in diplomacy, academic Claire Yorke defends the importance of actors trying, at least partially, to see the world through the eyes of even their most implacable opponents. The opposite seems to have prevailed between Japan and China, over a new feud related to Taiwan.
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Speaking in the Diet, the recently installed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that if an emergency in Taiwan involved “warships and the use of force, then that could constitute a situation threatening [Japan’s] survival, whichever way you look at it.” In such a situation, she added, one could only assume a “worst case scenario.” The comments came just days after Takaichi met Xi Jinping in South Korea, and her remarks provoked an immediate rebuke from Beijing. The Chinese Consul-General in Osaka, Xue Jian, wrote on X that, “We have no choice but cut off that dirty neck that has been lunged at us without hesitation. Are you ready?” A strong rebuttal from Foreign Minister Wang Yi also followed.
Read More: What to Know About Japan and China’s Spat Over Taiwan
The two nations have a complicated history. Imperial Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931, which later transformed into the Second Sino-Japanese War of 1937 to 1945 that left millions dead. Although the conflict is largely beyond living memory, it haunts the two nations’ relationship, with the Chinese never forgetting, and the Japanese seemingly all too often, at least in Beijing’s eyes, failing to remember. Resentment, prickliness, and distrust linger under the surface of what is, today, a huge economic relationship. In 2024 alone, two-way trade was over $300 billion, easily constituting Japan’s second largest export market after the U.S.
It takes little to tip Sino-Japanese relations into turmoil. In 2004, the victory of the Japanese soccer team over the Chinese one at the Asia Cup final in Beijing led to riots. Several years later, in 2010, the detention of a Chinese fisherman by Japanese forces in disputed water caused a temporary embargo on rare earth exports, something Japanese industry is heavily reliant on. When both Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and then Shinzo Abe himself visited the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, where war criminals are buried, Beijing expressed dismay and offense. And Xi has yet to make the relatively short flight to Tokyo, despite having visited over 70 countries.
This was, and will never be, an easy relationship.
Japan, which committed to pacifism in its postwar constitution, has a self-defense force that looks and sounds increasingly like a full-on army. Unpredictability and uncertainty in its key security ally, the U.S., a partner whose troops are still hosted on Okinawa, has created a more unilateral and self-centered attitude that has become the norm in much of the world. These days, Japan needs to think about how to stand up for itself. To some degree, Takaichi’s comments were merely a manifestation of that, and show that Japan’s pacifism is under pressure like never before.
Since 1945, thankfully, Japan and China have engaged in plenty of wars of words, but never once come close to a physical clash with each other. Yet while many might want to cheer Japan’s new Prime Minister on in her tougher language and stance toward China, they need to bear in mind the consequences if this gets out of hand. Even moderates in China, when it comes to their historical nemeses, tend to adopt hardline positions. And while Chinese tourists enjoy visiting Japan, a hard nationalistic attitude can come through quite quickly when they feel their modern history is not being respected, and Japan is starting to appear too pushy and bellicose again.
Everyone needs to remember that on the issue of Taiwan, China is unlikely to act coldly and rationally if it is pushed into a corner. That does not equate to saying it has cast-iron plans to invade in the next year or two. But it does mean that we are in an era of rising tension and risk. If we do get to the “worst case scenario,” as Takaichi said, it would create a new world—and one which would tear up, violently and dramatically, the one we currently live in. It is a world that, for all its faults, just about manages to preserve some degree of international co-operation.
Read More: How China Could Take Taiwan, Without Firing a Shot
The hawks who are revving up their expectations of a final showdown, inside and outside China and Japan, need to remember the wise counsel of the great Prussian theorist of war, Carl von Clausewitz, who described one of the key aspects of conflict being the way events sped up, control disappeared, and everything was thrown to chance. A war between China and Taiwan would all too easily escalate from a regional to a global conflict, bringing in not just Japan, but the U.S. and everyone else. That is a vast price to pay.
U.S. President Donald Trump seems to grasp the gravity of the situation, and reportedly urged Takaichi this week to avoid any further escalations.
It is better for everyone that Japan and China revert to the uneasy, pragmatic relationship they have managed for much of the last seven decades, and do everything they can to avoid that “worst case” ever coming to pass.
The post The Danger of Japan and China’s Escalating Spat appeared first on TIME.
