President Donald Trump’s “favorite pollster” has a grim warning for the GOP.
A survey by McLaughlin and Associates warns that Republicans are hemorrhaging support from all-important independent voters—a damning sign for the party as it tries to maintain House and Senate majorities through the midterms.
In a column for Newsmax explaining the findings, John McLaughlin, a pollster for the 2024 Trump campaign, and his brother, Jim, wrote that there is an “increasingly challenging landscape for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections.”
Specifically, the right-wing pollsters wrote that Democrats are leading the generic congressional ballot 45 percent to 44 percent, marking the first time they have led in their surveys since the 2024 election. That means every pollster tracked by The New York Times now predicts that Democrats will regain control of Congress in next year’s midterms.
The McLaughlin poll, which surveyed 1,000 Americans this month, found that Democrats now hold advantages among key swing demographics they lost ground with in 2024. The poll comes on the heels of other troubling polls for Republicans.
Democrats now lead Republicans among independents (42 percent to 26 percent), Hispanics (48 percent to 36 percent), suburban voters (46 percent to 43 percent), and women (50 percent to 38 percent).
The state of the economy may be driving voters toward Democrats. The McLaughlin survey found that 49 percent of respondents said the U.S. is not in a recession, down from 58 percent in August. It also noted that 41 percent of respondents said they are struggling to make ends meet.
This could prove a recipe for disaster for the GOP, which has little wiggle room to lose seats and still maintain a majority.
The House is currently composed of 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and three vacant seats, giving the GOP a slim majority. It is equally tight in the Senate, which is composed of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents who caucus with Democrats.
Great to be with friends @realDonaldTrump @Yankees game Randy n Mindy Levine Steinbrenner family last night @Scavino47 @StevenCheung47 pic.twitter.com/d2Q05yCU1S
— John McLaughlin (@jmclghln) September 12, 2025
The McLaughlin brothers feel there is still time for the GOP to turn things around.
“If Republicans need around 60 million votes in 2026 to retake the House, there are more than enough Trump voters to do it,” they wrote. “But as of 2025, the 75 million Harris voters appear more energized. That must change. And there is time to change it.”
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