Bloomberg reports that some stores will struggle to keep shelves stocked with children’s gifts thanks to the lingering damage of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“Parents getting around to do toy shopping this Black Friday week should expect a far thinner selection of toys than last year,” said Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University.
“After a strong start to the year, metric tons of containerized toy imports have been down double digits each month since May, with some months seeing imports drop more than 30 percent from 2024 levels,” Miller told Bloomberg.
The most recent data — available only through August due to the government shutdown — shows the tonnage of inbound toys in the category Miller researched were down almost 26 percent that month from a year earlier.
Bloomberg reports the problem isn’t that “Beijing is subjecting Barbies and e-bikes to export controls the way China has weaponized its dominance in rare earths.” Miller said U.S. tariffs are definitely to blame, with the effective duty rate on toys having jumped to 22 percent this year from zero.
We Pay the Tariffs coalition, a group of U.S. business-owners who must pay Trump’s tariff hikes at ports before passing those costs to customers, say that for the first eight months of this year, importers in the US paid $1.2 billion in duties on all merchandise declared at the border.
The group collects and shares data and firsthand accounts of how rising tariff-driven costs on holiday merchandise are threatening small businesses’ ability to compete with massive corporate giants during the holidays, among other announcements.
Economies including Vietnam and Mexico are gaining market share, according to Bloomberg, but China continues to be the “dominate source for toys purchased in the U.S.,” accounting for just over 67 percent of imports in 2025.
Read the Bloomberg report at this link.
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