When Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2024, he swept Tennessee’s 7th congressional district by 22 points, but the dramatic shift away from Republicans is turning heads ahead of next week’s special election.
Voters are casting ballots on Tuesday in a special election to fill the seat vacated by Republican Rep. Mark Green. Green beat Democrat Megan Barry in the congressional race last year by more than 21 points.
But a new poll out of the district shows the race neck-and-neck between Republican Matt Van Epps and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn.
Van Epps is leading Behn by just two points, 48 percent to 46 percent, according to a new poll of likely voters and those who already cast ballots.
While Van Epps holds the advantage for Election Day voting, the substantial closing of the gap suggests an even nastier political climate for Republicans than previously anticipated headed into next year’s midterms.
The expectation among strategists is not that Behn will win, but it has raised questions about what an over-performance by a Democrat in a deep red state means for next year’s battle for the House.
Trump’s approval in the district is completely underwater, the poll showed. After winning the state by double-digits, only 47 percent approve of his job performance while 49 percent disapprove. The change has been driven by Independents, with 59 percent disapproving.
The president, late Tuesday, took notice. After repeatedly ranting against early voting, including as recently as last month, he posted an urgent call to voters to get out for the last day of early in-person voting on Wednesday.
“PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement,” Trump wrote of the GOP candidate, a former state commissioner and combat veteran.
Democrats believe even a close race will help drive momentum heading into next year’s midterms after the party earlier this month saw a series of off-year victories in New Jersey, Virginia and Pennsylvania, which gave the party its greatest confidence boost since a GOP sweep more than a year ago.
Both Republican and Democratic groups have spent millions in the district ahead of the special election.
Some of the biggest spenders include MAGA Inc., which supports Trump, and has dropped more than $1.3 million on the race, and Conservatives for American Excellence PAC, which has also spent more than $1 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. The largest groups supporting the Democratic candidate include the House Majority PAC, which spent more than $930,000, and Your Community PAC, which spent more than $500,000.
According to a national Democratic strategist who works on House races, the Republicans are dumping money into the Trump +22 district “in a desperate last minute attempt to avoid a Democratic overperformance.”
The president’s party has a long history of losing seats in midterms, and the current House makeup, with one of the smallest GOP majorities ever, puts Democrats in a strong position to reclaim the majority.
Behn closing the gap even slightly suggests a greater number of Republican seats are on the line less than a year from now.
“Republicans are going to lose the House majority next year not just because of traditional ‘swing’ districts,’” the strategist noted, pointing to a “historically unpopular” agenda even in Trump country.
Republicans currently hold 219 seats. Democrats hold 213 seats. There are three vacancies, including in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district, as well as two seats left empty by Democrats. The runoff for the safe-blue seat in Texas will take place on January 31.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s surprise exit from Congress in January will further narrow the GOP majority.
In a desperate attempt to hold onto power after the midterms, Trump has been pressuring red states to redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 elections to help give Republicans a greater advantage.
However, his pressure campaign set off a scramble across the country, with blue states also taking steps in response.
With both red and blue states making moves to redistrict and a series of legal battles playing out in the courts, the president’s push could result in an even break or even backfire on Republicans ahead of next year’s contests.
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