It was another winning week, a 3-1 result that pushed my run to 9-2 over the past three weeks. Dallas cashed as an underdog, Buffalo-Houston stayed comfortably under, and New York Giants-Detroit beat the total. Only New England’s narrow miss kept me from a perfect week.
With Thanksgiving upon us, I’ve got a few lines that look extra juicy once you carve into the matchups, including a heavyweight offense that finally looks like itself again, an underrated pass rush facing a quarterback who melts under the heat and a marquee showdown that could surprise.
Best bets record: 21-25
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Chiefs -3
The Chiefs nearly doubled the Colts in yards last week, ran 41 more plays and would have won easily if not for two fluky turnovers. Patrick Mahomes also threw for 352 yards and kept drives alive all game. Dallas, on the other hand, needed a big Philadelphia meltdown to come back and hasn’t been reliable on Thanksgiving (3-11 against the spread on the holiday since 2011). Losing guard Trey Smith hurts, but Kansas City’s offense should still be effective.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC
Pick: Ravens -7
Baltimore didn’t look sharp early against the New York Jets, but it controlled the game once the second half began. Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked like himself, but he avoided mistakes and quietly posted strong efficiency numbers thanks to key fourth-down conversions and big penalty gains.
Cincinnati needed a pick-six and still struggled to hang with a solid-but-not-great Patriots team. The Bengals are anticipating quarterback Joe Burrow will play for the first time since turf toe knocked him out in Week 2, but it’s no lock that he will be at his best in his first game back.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Texans +4½
The Texans are catching points in a matchup that fits them well. They were able to upset Buffalo last week by avoiding sacks and turnovers and letting their defense take over, producing eight sacks and forcing three turnovers. That formula should translate well against the Colts and quarterback Daniel Jones, whose accuracy falls apart when under pressure. According to TruMedia, his rate of off-target throws nearly doubles from 8 percent in a clean pocket to 15 percent when facing pressure (23rd among 34 qualified passers).
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Under 42½ points (The pick is Seahawks -6, but it is not a best bet)
The Vikings’ offense has been a disappointment with quarterback J.J. McCarthy, struggling on third down and rarely generating explosive plays. (McCarthy is in the concussion protocol and may not play Sunday.) The Seattle defense has been one of the best in the league. Combine that with the Seahawks’ run-heavy approach on offense, and this game could wind up being a low-scoring affair.
Denver Broncos (-6½) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC
Pick: First-half total under 22½ (The pick is Broncos -6½, but it is not a best bet)
There are a lot of reasons to think this won’t be a high-scoring game, especially at the start. Games featuring Denver have gone over the total just twice this season, missing by a field goal per contest. The Broncos have gone three-and-out on 41 percent of their first-half drives, per TruMedia — well above the league average of 32 percent. The Commanders’ offense has scored just two points per drive in the first half, a below-average rate. And they use up a lot of clock, averaging an above-average six plays per drive.
The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to occur on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2½)
Thursday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Lions -2½
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Friday, 3 p.m. | Prime Video
Pick: Eagles -7
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Buccaneers -3
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6½) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Jaguars -6½
Los Angeles Rams (-10½) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Rams -10½
Atlanta Falcons (-2½) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Falcons -2½
San Francisco 49ers (-5½) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: 49ers -5½
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (-5½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Dolphins -5½
Buffalo Bills (-3½) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Steelers +3½
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-9½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Raiders +9½
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-7½)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ESPN
Pick: Giants +7½
The post Best NFL bets for Week 13: Take Chiefs over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving appeared first on Washington Post.
