The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks occupy the league’s highest tier in this week’s power rankings, and they’ve earned it. L.A. brings the most complete profile in football, winning with commanding efficiency on both sides of the ball, while Seattle ranks right behind. Meanwhile, there has been some movement among the second and third tiers of contenders.
As a reminder: Our power rankings differ from most of our counterparts’ in that they are not tied to win-loss records or nonquantifiable ideas such as momentum or positive vibes. They are simply a reflection of what our model says are the best teams in the NFL right now and how they should be expected to perform moving forward.
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Top contenders
1. Los Angeles Rams (9-2-0)
2. Seattle Seahawks (8-3-0)
The Rams headline this tier because they combine a scorching passing game with a defense that consistently wins on early downs. Seattle similarly has an explosive, highly efficient offense, and a defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in success rate.
Strong challengers
3. Detroit Lions (7-4-0)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5-0)
5. Indianapolis Colts (8-3-0)
6. Green Bay Packers (7-3-1)
Kansas City sits one spot ahead of Indianapolis not because of its head-to-head win on Sunday, but because the model weights opponent strength, and the Chiefs have faced a much tougher schedule than the Colts while producing similar underlying results.
Solid playoff teams
7. Buffalo Bills (7-4-0)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3-0)
9. San Francisco 49ers (8-4-0)
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4-0)
11. New England Patriots (10-2-0)
12. Houston Texans (6-5-0)
13. Baltimore Ravens (6-5-0)
14. Denver Broncos (9-2-0)
The Jaguars might surprise some by being this high in the rankings, but outside of two clear clunkers (vs. the Rams and at Houston), they’ve shown up every single week, keeping games competitive and moving the ball effectively.
The Patriots currently own the best record in the NFL, but our model sees them as a solid, efficient team, not a dominant one. Six of their wins this season have come by one score. While they deserve credit for winning close, grind-it-out games, the fact that they haven’t overwhelmed opponents has them looking more like a good team that’s on a hot streak, rather than a top-tier juggernaut.
Houston has reentered the AFC South race mostly because its defense has been excellent, earning the second-lowest opponent success rate in the NFL — consistently forcing offenses into failed plays and long yardage situations.
In the hunt for playoff spots
15. Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)
16. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4-0)
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-0)
18. Chicago Bears (8-3-0)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5-0)
20. Arizona Cardinals (3-8-0)
Chicago has the best record of the group, and if the season ended today, it would win the NFC North and host a playoff game. But the Bears have lived on razor-thin margins, needing turnovers, special teams swings and late stops to survive several games. With road trips to Philadelphia and Green Bay up next on the schedule, Chicago’s true strength will be put to the test.
Tampa Bay’s early wins masked a deeper issue. Over the past month its defense has collapsed, giving up 28, 44 and 34 points in three straight losses while allowing huge yardage totals and almost no resistance on the ground. Combine that with an offense that has stalled badly — 193 total yards vs. the Rams during Sunday night’s defeat — and the Bucs suddenly look like a team in crisis. That’s before considering the possibility that quarterback Baker Mayfield could miss time with a left shoulder injury.
The Cardinals continue to rate higher in our model than they do in the standings, after going toe-to-toe with a playoff contender on the road.
Average teams
21. Minnesota Vikings (4-7-0)
22. Miami Dolphins (4-7-0)
23. Carolina Panthers (6-6-0)
24. New York Giants (2-10-0)
25. Atlanta Falcons (4-7-0)
The Giants’ record is awful, but their underlying performance keeps them sinking to the very bottom of our rankings. They’ve been much more competitive on a play-by-play basis than their fellow cellar dwellers, as evidenced by the fact that their last three losses have come by one score.
Below-average teams
26. Cleveland Browns (3-8-0)
27. Cincinnati Bengals (3-8-0)
Cincinnati is below average because injuries and shaky quarterback play have stripped away the explosive offense that once carried them. Cleveland is below average because they can’t generate consistent offense or protect their quarterback.
Rebuilding phase
28. Tennessee Titans (1-10-0)
29. Washington Commanders (3-8-0)
30. New York Jets (2-9-0)
31. New Orleans Saints (2-9-0)
32. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9-0)
The Titans moved up slightly because they played far better than a typical 1-10 team in Sunday’s loss to Seattle, with rookie Cam Ward delivering his most efficient game of the year and keeping them competitive against a top contender.
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