It’s difficult to imagine the NFL playoffs without Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid being involved, but that’s entirely possible unless the Kansas City Chiefs add a dynamic jolt to their offense. Rapidly.
There are many things that have not gone according to plan for the franchise that has made the AFC championship game all seven seasons since Mahomes took over as starter in 2018. But it’s become clear that simply getting some of their key offensive skill players back from injury and suspension is not enough for this team to win games as regularly as we’ve become accustomed to. Their loss at Denver early this week basically ended their hopes of a 10th straight AFC West title, and a loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday would leave them with about a 35 percent chance to reach the postseason at all.
So what exactly is the problem with the Chiefs? Lack of explosion in the offense coupled with protections issues might just be it.
“They aren’t making you pay for coming after them like they used to,” said a longtime NFL executive who has scouted the Chiefs this season and spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not permitted to speak about his reports. “We thought we could blitz them, use our linebackers to attack, and it would kind of [mess] them up. You can get away with more of that now.”
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Mahomes has been sacked three times in three straight games, and he was absolutely assaulted by what had been a tepid Bills defensive front (pressured on 47 percent of his dropbacks in what was probably the worst start of his career) in week nine. It certainly seems like the offense has become constricted and predictable when it doesn’t have the crowd behind them at Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes might want to brace for a renewed onslaught of blitzes, and some of Reid’s comments this week made it sound like the coach and quarterback are not nearly as simpatico as in years past.
While Kansas City has scored 28 or more points in four straight at home, their issues at the line of scrimmage — when they really need a play or a yard — are exacerbated on the road. Kansas City averages 5.7 yards per play at home and on the road, but their red-zone efficiency sags from 73.9 percent to 55.6 percent, their goal-to-go rate plummets from 83.3 percent to 60 percent and they average just 22.2 offensive points per game, compared to 28.6 at home.
Kansas City is rushing 32 times per game (at 4.1 yards per carry) at home and just 20 times per game (at a robust 5 yards per carry) on the road. Of course, nursing big leads at home and bleeding the clock has something to do with that, but it’s worthy of a course correction nonetheless. Overall, the only teams running the ball less than Reid this season (34.8 percent) are the Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals — three clubs going nowhere — and, in his comments to the media this week, Reid intimated Mahomes has something do with that.
“The runs are being called; it’s just that sometimes they get turned into passes in today’s world,” Reid said to reporters this week. “You know how that goes. But we’re getting them — we’re getting them in. Now we have some hard runs where you just get up, line up and go. Probably could call more of those.”
The Chiefs are slightly above the league average in yards per rush, but with Isiah Pacheco injured again and a rotating committee in the backfield, these problems might persist.
The offense has also been limited by the lack of a deep passing game. The return of top receiver Rashee Rice from suspension was supposed to unlock the downfield precision, but it hasn’t been the case. Rice is averaging just 9.7 yards per reception, on a career low 7.2 yards per target, and 151 of his 253 receiving yards have come after the catch. Mahomes ranks just 20th in passer rating on balls thrown 20 yards or more (79.5) and is just 21st in completion percentage on such attempts (34 percent).
Mahomes has six passing touchdowns of 20 air yards or more since 2023, which is 29th in the NFL in that span (behind the likes of Aidan O’Connell, Will Levis and Justin Fields). From 2018 to 2022, Mahomes threw 42 touchdowns passes of that length in 79 games (only Aaron Rodgers, with 43, had more).
“That’s alarming,” NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger said, noting he thought the primary reason the Chiefs lost at Denver was the Broncos connected on deep passes and Kansas City could not. “Especially since they’ve added all that speed to the lineup. … They haven’t adequately replaced Tyreek Hill even though they won a Super Bowl without him.”
Mahomes was blitzed 18 percent of the time from 2018 to 2022, far and away lowest in the NFL, and that’s ticked up to 23 percent and rising this season. Mahomes, behind that offensive line, ranks 23rd in the NFL this season with an 86.4 passer rating and 27th at 6.1 yards per attempt while completing 56.2 percent of his attempts (27th). From 2018 to 2024, Mahomes was the league’s premier passer against the blitz, ranked first among anyone with more than 40 starts, with a 113.8 rating, completing 66 percent of his passes at a hefty 8.4 yards per attempt with 69 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions.
Expect opposing defensive coordinators to continue turning up the heat.
All of it has left the Chiefs in uncharted territory as Thanksgiving approaches. Mahomes is trying to stave off the first three-game losing streak of his career. The fact that the upstart Colts are coming to Kansas City and have been shredded by the few elite quarterbacks they have faced should help him avoid that distinction. After once rolling out a ridiculous 17 straight wins in one-score games, Kansas City has now lost all five of such games this season.
A fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance has already become quite improbable. Catching the Broncos in the division would require an epic collapse. Even qualifying for the playoffs might require significant help from other teams. For once, finally, they might not get it.
The post There’s no way the Chiefs miss the playoffs. Right? appeared first on Washington Post.
