When President Trump launched his summer campaign to redraw congressional districts to the G.O.P.’s favor, it seemed almost inevitable that Republicans would gain a modest structural advantage in the House of Representatives.
But since then, almost nothing has broken the Republican Party’s way. It has faced setback after setback, while Democrats have surprisingly countered with aggressive gerrymanders of their own.
This week, Republicans encountered yet another round of roadblocks in Texas and Indiana. The two states once seemed likely to help the Republicans flip as many as seven Democratic-held districts combined, but after a federal court ruled against the new Texas map and Indiana failed to redraw its map, it suddenly seems possible that Republicans might not gain even a single district in these states.
Without those seats, it’s now imaginable that the Democrats — not the Republicans — will narrowly win this year’s redistricting wars, and net the most seats heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
Texas has already asked the Supreme Court to step in and allow the state to use its new map. But even if that happens, Republicans have had so many setbacks over the last few months that it would not be enough for Republicans to obtain a meaningful advantage — just a narrow one at best. Among the developments:
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Utah. In September, a Utah state court ruled that the Republican-drawn congressional map, which contained four overwhelmingly Republican districts, violated the state constitution. Republicans then attempted to draw a map with two solidly Republican districts and two Republican-tilting districts. But the court struck that map down, too, and ordered a new one, which resulted in a solidly blue district in Salt Lake City.
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Virginia. In late October, Virginia Democrats announced an unexpected push to amend their state’s constitution to allow for partisan gerrymandering. While there are still hoops for Democrats to jump through, including a voter referendum, the amendment seems likely to be enacted into law and could yield three or even four new Democratic seats.
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Ohio. A week later, Ohio Democrats agreed to a Republican proposal to shift two Democratic-held districts toward the right, though not by so much that they’re sure to flip to Republicans. While this isn’t necessarily a setback for the G.O.P., it’s not likely to yield the two new Republican districts that had been expected, let alone the three that conservatives wanted.
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Kansas. In early November, Kansas Republicans dropped their effort to redraw the state’s single Democratic-held district, which includes the Kansas suburbs of the Kansas City, Mo., metro area.
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Indiana. Last week, the Republican State Senate announced it did not have the votes to redraw the state’s map and eliminate two Democratic-held districts in Indianapolis and Gary.
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Texas. On Tuesday, a federal judge ruled that the new Texas map, which could have helped Republicans flip up to five seats, violated the Voting Rights Act. If the ruling is allowed to stand, it will deny Republicans all the districts they had in their sights.
None of this was expected a few months ago, so it’s worth being cautious about predicting what will come next. But looking ahead, only two additional states seem likely to redraw their maps: Virginia, controlled by Democrats, and Florida, controlled by Republicans. These two efforts should more or less cancel each other out. But here again Republicans probably face a greater risk of disappointment.
As with Ohio, Florida’s state constitution bans partisan gerrymandering. Although the estimates above suppose that Florida Republicans will attempt to flip four Democratic seats, they might well conclude that such an aggressive map is a legal risk and opt for a more modest adjustment, as Ohio Republicans did. In contrast, Virginia’s proposed constitutional amendment would give the Democratic-run Legislature essentially unfettered opportunity to redraw its map. That could theoretically yield even more safely Democratic districts than our estimates suppose.
Republicans still have credible paths to narrowly “win” this year’s redistricting wars, especially if the lower court’s ruling against the new Texas map is stayed or overturned by the Supreme Court. There’s also the possibility that the Supreme Court could significantly weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in time to allow another round of Republican gerrymanders ahead of the midterms — but before Democrats could counter with additional constitutional amendments in blue states.
Still, at this point there would need to be several unexpected developments in Republicans’ favor before they could obtain even the modest advantage that they set out to secure at the beginning of the summer, let alone the more significant advantage necessary to survive a so-called blue wave election.
And in the wake of this month’s Democratic romp in Virginia and New Jersey — and a round of polls showing Mr. Trump’s approval rating plunging and Democrats’ rating rising — a “wave” has become increasingly easy to imagine.
Nate Cohn is The Times’s chief political analyst. He covers elections, public opinion, demographics and polling.
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