Employment numbers for September will be revealed on Thursday, the most significant release of economic data since the federal government shut down on Oct. 1, along with most of its surveys of workers and firms.
In this fast-changing economy, the delayed report is already out of date.
Economists believe that the labor market hit at least a statistical pothole in October. That report, which will be released in partial form in December, will reflect the more than 100,000 federal workers who formally came off payrolls after accepting delayed resignations, likely leading to an overall loss in jobs for the month.
The post-shutdown data fog has been slowly clearing, and already reveals some substantial changes in the more than five weeks that statistical agencies were closed. Imports sank 5.1 percent in August, for example, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday.
Employment growth in September appears to have been positive but lackluster.
Job growth has been weighed down in recent months by President Trump’s erratic trade policies, as well as a hangover from rapid hiring over the past few years. Mr. Trump’s crackdown on immigrants has lowered the number of additional jobs required to absorb people newly looking for work — the Department of Homeland Security said 527,000 people have been deported since January, with more leaving under pressure. Even so, analysts expect the unemployment rate will continue to rise through early next year.
“At the moment, growth in demand has slowed more than supply,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics. Although initial claims for unemployment insurance have been tame, he noted that they don’t capture everyone. “I think these data sets understate the degree of labor market slack that we’re seeing at the moment.”
Other indicators reinforce the picture of sluggish growth. The payroll processor ADP clocked negative private-sector job growth in September, before an October recovery that may have already faded. On the job search website Indeed, openings are as low as they’ve been in four years. In surveys by the Conference Board, the share of people who see jobs as being “hard to get” is the highest it’s been since 2021.
The landscape is particularly difficult for people who are looking for their first job in a white-collar profession, as employers have become choosier and artificial intelligence has allowed some tech companies to cut back on entry-level roles.
“On the blue-collar end there’s still a bit of a tight labor market, even if you’re not seeing the same turnover it’s still difficult to find workers,” said Ian Wyatt, chief economist at Huntington National Bank. “If you’re talking about new college grads, everyone’s struggling.”
Lydia DePillis reports on the American economy for The Times. She has been a journalist since 2009, and can be reached at [email protected].
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