President Trump has always defied the laws of political gravity, seemingly impervious to setbacks that would sink any other figure and immune from the traditional ebb and flow of campaign cycles.
But his capitulation in the fight over releasing the Epstein files, and other recent developments, suggest that, when it comes to Congress, the president is subject to at least some of the same currents as his predecessors, as the first signs of his lame duck status emerge.
The willingness of congressional Republicans to defy Mr. Trump and back legislation requiring the disclosure of federal files on Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender and one-time Trump friend, was the clearest evidence yet that G.O.P. lawmakers are starting to look beyond Mr. Trump’s tenure to their self-preservation in midterm elections next year.
There are other signs as well, notably the refusal by Senate Republicans to bow to Mr. Trump’s demand to gut the filibuster during the shutdown fight, and resistance in some states to his intense push to redraw House district maps to cement the G.O.P.’s hold and prevent a Democratic takeover that would imperil the president.
Mr. Trump’s previously ironclad grip on the Republican Congress might even be weakening earlier than usual, before the more typical loss of power by a sitting president following midterm elections. Republicans are reacting in real time to the drubbing their party took in off-year elections earlier this month, defeats that were much worse than anticipated.
Polling also shows Mr. Trump and his party in a weakened state on a number of fronts headed into a 2026 election cycle that will determine control of Congress, with Americans citing rising costs and a dour view of the economy that Mr. Trump had pledged to fix to their benefit.
The president continues to hold an outsized grip on his party given his massive popularity with his far-right base, and observers are quick to caution that his political strength has survived through many episodes when it had appeared to be waning.
But even Republicans concede that there is a shift underway that was probably inevitable, given the history of presidential power and the rapidity with which it can dissipate.
“He’d be the outlier if it didn’t happen,” said Senator Kevin Cramer, Republican of North Dakota. “The closer you get to the midterms and then beyond, everybody is measuring their own state or congressional district, and maybe people are a little more independent.”
Representative Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican who forced the Epstein vote in the face of political threats and caustic personal attacks from the president, perhaps said it most succinctly as he warned his colleagues about the risks of standing with the president at all costs.
“The record of this vote will last longer than Donald Trump’s presidency,” Mr. Massie said on ABC’s “This Week,” reminding his colleagues that they should avoid putting themselves in the posture of agreeing “to protect pedophiles,” as he put it, because Mr. Trump insisted they do so.
Scores of them took heed as approval of Mr. Massie’s Epstein legislation became a certainty, and Mr. Trump found himself forced to back the legislation at the last minute rather than suffer a mortifying defeat and look even weaker.
Mr. Massie now faces a primary next year against a Trump-backed opponent. A victory by the incumbent would be a real blow to the president and undermine Mr. Trump’s most powerful weapon against wavering Republicans — the threat of endorsing a challenger in the primary elections that decide so many congressional races these days.
Republicans will also be closely watching how Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia, fares after her dramatic break with Mr. Trump over his handling of the Epstein case and what she sees as the “America First” president’s undue emphasis on foreign affairs. Fellow Republicans will want to gauge if opposition to the president is really the political death knell it has long been perceived to be.
The president’s leverage could diminish even more as candidate filing deadlines and primaries pass next year.
“Unless the economy and his numbers rebound, Republicans are going to feel less willing to follow him blindly,” said David Axelrod, the political commentator and former top adviser to Barack Obama. “And that trend will accelerate once election filing periods pass in individual states and they are clear of potential primary challenges he holds over their heads.”
The dynamic is all but certain to influence the debate next month on extending expiring health care subsidies that Democrats tried and failed to preserve as part of a deal to reopen the government. Mr. Trump and most Republicans oppose extending the tax breaks and have yet to propose an alternative plan. But several vulnerable G.O.P. lawmakers facing re-election next year are eager to vote in favor of some version of an extension for fear of being blamed by voters for soaring premiums.
For now, the president’s weakened standing and this month’s off-year Republican defeats have helped contribute to rifts between the G.O.P. leaders of the House and Senate, who had previously been unified in speedily doing whatever Mr. Trump demanded.
Looking down the road at potential Democratic gains, Senate Republicans refused to give up the filibuster, the procedural weapon they view as their most potent defense against Democratic control, in spite of demands from Mr. Trump, cheered on by Speaker Mike Johnson, to do so.
Then, after Mr. Johnson called on Senate Republicans to amend the Epstein bill in line with changes sought by Mr. Trump, Senator John Thune, the South Dakota Republican and majority leader, quickly declined. The Senate ultimately sped the bill through without any sort of vote, let alone any amendments, eager to be rid of it but irritating the speaker in the process.
Mr. Thune said the two chambers sometimes have different imperatives, though they are generally still in sync.
Congressional Republicans also are trying to cautiously assert themselves on other issues, though it remains to be seen how aggressively they pursue them.
Some Republican lawmakers are questioning the administration’s continued deadly boat strikes against people it accuses of smuggling drugs, undertaken with questionable legal basis and without congressional review.
Republicans also joined in a bipartisan push for a tough Russia sanctions measure that the White House consistently sought to deter in the past.
Mr. Trump’s declaration that he wanted to send out tariff rebate checks, a move his administration suggested it could make without any congressional action, also ran into quick objections from Republicans on Capitol Hill.
Still, the president continues to wield immense power, and can claim the firm allegiance of tens of millions of MAGA-aligned voters, a fact that gives him clout with Republicans and will continue to allow him to try to impose his will on Capitol Hill even as nervousness grows within his party about the coming elections.
“At the end of the day, when there is a big vote and a close, narrow margin, he pulls it out,” Mr. Cramer said.
The question for the president will be how long he can continue to do so as Republicans turn toward 2026, their own survival and a post-Trump world.
Carl Hulse is the chief Washington correspondent for The Times, primarily writing about Congress and national political races and issues. He has nearly four decades of experience reporting in the nation’s capital.
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