The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a new schedule on Wednesday for its data releases in the wake of the government shutdown. Notably, the October jobs report will not be released independently.
A part of the October jobs report that surveys employers will come out with the November jobs report in mid-December, slightly later than previously scheduled, along with data on job turnover. But the agency said that it could not retroactively collect surveys from households, which determine the unemployment rate.
The October data is expected to show negative job growth because of the more than 100,000 federal workers who participated in the deferred resignation program and formally left payrolls in late September.
The announcement from the B.L.S. has major implications for the Federal Reserve, where officials are debating whether to lower interest rates for a third time in a row when they meet next month.
Another cut at the Dec. 9-10 meeting was already set to be close call after Jerome H. Powell, the Fed’s chair, said at the last gathering, in October, that a reduction was “far from” a foregone conclusion. Since that meeting, policymakers have only grown more divided about what to do. After the B.L.S. announced its updated schedule, traders scaled back their bets that the Fed would cut interest rates next month.
Officials inclined to support another cut appear chiefly concerned about the slowdown in monthly jobs growth and the prospects of unemployment spiking if the central bank does not offer some relief. But there is a growing, vocal group of policymakers, who are more worried about inflation and the impact of President Trump’s tariffs, which have raised some consumer prices. Those officials warn that cutting interest rates further could exacerbate inflation and push the Fed’s 2 percent target further out of reach.
Typically, new economic data would help to resolve differences among policymakers. But based on the revised schedule, the Fed will have to make do without much of it. November’s jobs report — and part of October’s report — will not come out until Dec. 16, about a week after the central bank is set to vote on interest rates.
That will put even more emphasis on September’s jobs report, which is set for release on Thursday, as well as another report tracking prices for that month for goods and services that companies use to make products, scheduled to be released the next week. The Labor Department did not indicate when, or whether, it would release the Consumer Price Index for October.
Never before has a government shutdowns lasted long enough to unsalvageably ruin parts of the employment report, and this will be the first time in the survey’s 77-year history that the Labor Department will not publish an unemployment rate. The household survey is difficult to collect much later than the intended sample period because people do not always remember details about their employment situation, which could lead to distortions.
The employer survey is easier to collect later because businesses, nonprofits and government entities typically keep better records. Responses are already collected up to two months later, and the initial estimates are revised to incorporate them.
The jobs data set for release on Thursday was collected before the government shut down on Oct. 1, and just needed to be completed. Economists expect a modest gain of about 55,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.3 percent.
Lydia DePillis reports on the American economy for The Times. She has been a journalist since 2009, and can be reached at [email protected].
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