For the past several years, America has been using its young people as lab rats in a sweeping, if not exactly thought-out, education experiment. Schools across the country have been lowering standards and removing penalties for failure. The results are coming into focus.
Five years ago, about 30 incoming freshmen at UC San Diego arrived with math skills below high-school level. Now, according to a recent report from UC San Diego faculty and administrators, that number is more than 900—and most of those students don’t fully meet middle-school math standards. Many students struggle with fractions and simple algebra problems. Last year, the university, which admits fewer than 30 percent of undergraduate applicants, launched a remedial-math course that focuses entirely on concepts taught in elementary and middle school. (According to the report, more than 60 percent of students who took the previous version of the course couldn’t divide a fraction by two.) One of the course’s tutors noted that students faced more issues with “logical thinking” than with math facts per se. They didn’t know how to begin solving word problems.
The university’s problems are extreme, but they are not unique. Over the past five years, all of the other University of California campuses, including UC Berkeley and UCLA, have seen the number of first-years who are unprepared for precalculus double or triple. George Mason University, in Virginia, revamped its remedial-math summer program in 2023 after students began arriving at their calculus course unable to do algebra, the math-department chair, Maria Emelianenko, told me.
“We call it quantitative literacy, just knowing which fraction is larger or smaller, that the slope is positive when it is going up,” Janine Wilson, the chair of the undergraduate economics program at UC Davis, told me. “Things like that are just kind of in our bones when we are college ready. We are just seeing many folks without that capability.”
[Idrees Kahloon: America is sliding toward illiteracy]
Part of what’s happening here is that as more students choose STEM majors, more of them are being funneled into introductory math courses during their freshman year. But the national trend is very clear: America’s students are getting much worse at math. The decline started about a decade ago and sharply accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic. The average eighth grader’s math skills, which rose steadily from 1990 to 2013, are now a full school year behind where they were in 2013, according to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, the gold standard for tracking academic achievement. Students in the bottom tenth percentile have fallen even further behind. Only the top 10 percent have recovered to 2013 levels.
On the one hand, this means that math scores are close to where they were in the 1970s—hardly the Dark Ages. On the other hand, losing 50 years’ worth of math-education progress is a clear disaster. How did this happen? One theory is that the attention-shredding influence of phones and social media is to blame. The dip in math scores coincides with the widespread adoption of smartphones; by 2015, nearly three-quarters of high-school-aged kids had access to one. A related possibility is that technology is making students complacent. Emelianenko told me that students “are just not engaged in math classes anymore”; they seem to believe that they don’t need to learn math, because they can use AI instead.
Or maybe students have stopped achieving in math because schools have stopped demanding it of them. During the George W. Bush administration, federal policy emphasized accountability for public schools. Schools that saw poor performance on standardized tests received increased funding at first, but if scores still didn’t improve, they had their funding pulled. Research suggests that this helped improve math outcomes, particularly for poor Black students. After 2015, however, the federal government backed off from its accountability measures, which had faced bipartisan criticism. (Some teachers’ unions and progressive parents wanted less emphasis on standardized tests, and some conservative politicians wanted the federal government to remove itself from education policy.) Many schools across the country have shifted toward making math engaging for students at the expense of evidence-based teaching practices. And due to funding shortages or misguided efforts to improve equity, many students are held back from taking the hardest math courses.
The pandemic supercharged the decline. Districts that spent most of the 2020–21 school year mandating remote learning saw students fall more than half a grade behind in math; districts that reopened earlier saw more modest declines. These difficulties prompted teachers to further relax their standards. “Everyone was just exhausted and challenged by the circumstances around the pandemic,” Joshua Goodman, a Boston University professor of economics and education, told me. “And I think one of the reactions to that was for everyone involved to say: ‘Let’s lower our expectations. Let’s make sure that we don’t fail students when they’re not doing their work, because the world is challenging right now.’” Many districts adopted a “no zeros” policy, forcing teachers to pass students who had little command of the material. One study of public-school students across Washington State found that almost none received an F in spring 2020, while the share of students who received A’s skyrocketed. Math grades have remained elevated in the years since.
Together, these changes meant that even as students’ math preparation was stagnating, their grades were going up. The UC San Diego report notes that more than a quarter of the students who placed into the elementary- and middle-school-level remedial course last year had earned straight A’s in their high-school math classes. Almost all of them had taken advanced math courses in high school.
[From the November 2024 issue: The elite college students who can’t read books]
At the same time, the UC system eliminated its best tool for assessing students’ academic preparedness. In 2020, system leaders voted to phase standardized-test scores out of admissions decisions. They argued that the tests worsened racial divides and unfairly privileged wealthy students. But SAT and ACT scores are the most reliable predictors of a student’s math ability, the report found. “It’s not really surprising, then, that you’re going to be admitting more students who aren’t ready for mathematics, because you removed the one piece of data that would have told you that,” Morgan Polikoff, an education professor at the University of Southern California, told me. That same year, the UC system dramatically increased the number of students it enrolled from under-resourced high schools. These students are much more likely to place into Math 2, the elementary- and middle-school-level remedial course.
The new report calls on the UC system to consider reinstating the use of standardized-test scores in admissions, and for UC San Diego to bring its enrollment of students from under-resourced schools back in line with that of other selective UC colleges. “Admitting large numbers of students who are profoundly underprepared risks harming the very students we hope to support, by setting them up for failure,” the report observes.
Bringing back standardized-test scores might help elite institutions get out of the remedial-math business, but it will not address the underlying problem of widespread innumeracy. “Regardless of what a university is doing in terms of its admissions process, American students have been getting weaker in terms of their math skills for about the past decade,” Goodman told me. Already, researchers predict a massive economic cost from declining quantitative skills.
Dan Goldhaber, the director of the Center for Education Data & Research at the University of Washington, told me that he doesn’t know of anyone who denies that young people are much worse at math than they used to be. Instead, most of the arguments for optimism hinge on the idea that students might no longer need foundational math skills, because they could use AI instead—an idea he thinks is absurd.
The other academics I spoke with tended to agree. “Who is going to trust somebody who got a degree in airline engineering who doesn’t know how to think through a problem without a computer telling them the answer?” Brian Conrad, a Stanford math professor, told me. “The premise that foundational ideas don’t need to be learned anymore is a recipe for idiocracy.”
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