You’ve seen it on social media: “This $15,000 Chinese EV will DESTROY the auto industry!!” In fact, 2025 was to be the year when electric vehicles reached global price parity with gasoline cars in their segments: They’d cost the same, regardless of whether they had an engine or a battery with electric motors. In North America, that didn’t happen.
As US vehicle prices continue to soar, it begs the question: When will the US get EVs that are more affordable, as cheap as gas cars, to make mass-market shoppers pay attention? They face new headwinds: The $7,500 national EV purchase incentive ended September 30. That month brought the highest ever EV sales—and many predictions of doom to follow.
Let’s define “affordable” as around $30,000. The average new vehicle in the US now sells for an eye-watering $50,080, and that number will likely rise. Cheaper EVs are coming, though not as fast as they have in Europe and China. WIRED spoke to industry analysts as well as executives at Ford, General Motors, Kia, and others about how they see the market, and, crucially, when we’ll have affordable EVs in volume.
Every maker is keenly aware of the global threat posed by Chinese contenders like BYD. The existential question is whether non-Chinese makers will innovate fast enough to be competitive when today’s tariff barriers ultimately fall.
There are three basic ways automakers can cut EV prices and still make money: First, radically simplify the vehicle and build process; second, use far cheaper batteries; and third, make vehicles smaller. Most makers combine elements of all three approaches, but stress one or another.
Rethink Everything
Ford CEO Jim Farley has been vocal about how good Chinese EVs are, after six months with a Chinese Xiaomi SU7 as his daily driver in Detroit. He said last October he “didn’t want to give it back,” and he acknowledges that Ford must compete globally with the best of those companies.
He’s also said Ford won’t build and sell any EV on which it can’t make money within a year. For that reason, Ford killed a planned midsize EV crossover and delayed the opening of a second battery plant. Then in August, it announced an entirely new, radically simpler EV platform.
In interviews with Farley and Ford’s chief EV, digital, and design officer Doug Field, they told WIRED the company’s “skunk works” in Southern California rethought every aspect of designing and manufacturing an EV to lower costs, streamline development, and simplify assembly.
The first of its new vehicles will be a 2028 electric pickup truck roughly the size of the current Ford Maverick, possibly called the Ranchero. It’ll come from a retooled assembly plant in Louisville, Kentucky, in the second half of 2027. Its platform will spawn two further EVs, now scheduled for 2028: replacements for the current full-size Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup and the Ford e-Transit commercial van.
Ford’s Clean Sheet
Field told WIRED the group started with a “clean-sheet process” untethered to Ford’s traditional development process. Small teams will now design different aspects of the car concurrently and collaboratively, rather than handing off from one team to the next. They looked hard at every single component or assembly, stripping each down to the bare essentials. “The best part is no part,” said Field.
The company, Farley told WIRED, is investing heavily in large die castings, similar to those used by Tesla, in which giant cast structures replace dozens of smaller stampings welded together. The new vehicles will also use “structural batteries,” meaning the metal top of the battery case serves as the vehicle’s floor. Seats and carpets are installed directly on top of the pack.
The rethought assembly process is a “tree” rather than a traditional line: “Three different lines feed into a relatively short end of line.” Field characterized those processes as “the front, the middle, and the rear.” Overall, the new process will supposedly eliminate one-third of existing fasteners and 130 separate stations from the process. Farley said the combined effect of fewer parts and simpler assembly improves production speed by 40 percent over a comparable internal-combustion vehicle from the Louisville plant.
Field’s team also focused on cutting aerodynamic drag to the absolute minimum, to use battery energy most efficiently. A reduction of “one count [0.01] of Cd [drag coefficient] is worth $25 of battery,” he said. “I’m obsessed by this,” Field told WIRED. Farley added that in the future, Ford’s “battery could be so small, so much smaller” than a battery in a comparable BYD model that the lower cost would potentially offset BYD’s advantage from vertical integration.
Earlier this year, Ford told analysts it has also benchmarked the best and lowest-cost EV parts makers in the world, meaning it may add new suppliers from outside the traditional industry ecosystem. In the summer, it also asked its existing EV suppliers to reduce costs.
Cheaper Power
Producing modern battery cells is complex and very expensive; economies of scale are crucial. That’s why most EV makers first bought cells from the biggest, most experienced global makers: Panasonic, LG Energy Solutions, and CATL. Only later did makers form joint ventures to bring cell fabrication in-house. Tesla was first, as it often is.
The least expensive battery chemistry is lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP), invented in the US but extensively developed by Chinese scientists over 25 years. It uses none of the metals (cobalt, manganese, nickel) that make today’s cells expensive—iron ore is cheap and plentiful—but its energy density is roughly 30 percent lower by weight. It’s taken 15 years of development for LFP cells to reach a density that gives US vehicles adequate range.
Although General Motors has two joint-venture NMCA (nickel manganese cobalt aluminum) cell plants with its partner LG, none of the dozen EVs it now offers has LFP batteries. The upcoming 2027 Chevrolet Bolt, built in Kansas, will be its first to use LFP cells in volume. It’s a refreshed Bolt EUV (electric utility vehicle) with an entirely new battery, motors, and power electronics, and 265 miles of range. Cells will be imported from CATL in China until its Ultium plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee, starts to make LFP cells by late 2027.
Better Battery Chemistries
GM’s EV sales have quietly surged this year: It’s on track to become the second-highest-volume seller of EVs in the US after Tesla. The Chevrolet Equinox EV, with a version starting around $36,500—below the crucial $40K mark—is now selling close to 10,000 units a month, In a Bolt press release, Chevy said, “Together, Bolt and Equinox EV are expected to account for most of Chevrolet’s 2026 EV volume”—suggesting it believes buyers will be there for affordable EVs.
GM revealed its longer-term battery strategy back in May. Within a few years, Ultium Cells plants will manufacture cells based on a revised chemistry dubbed LMR, for “lithium manganese-rich.” The company says the chemistry provides one-third higher energy density than comparable LFP cells—but at the cost of LFP. It’s targeting full-volume production in 2028.
Ford, too, is creating a battery plant to make prismatic LFP cells for future EVs. The site in Marshall, Michigan, has attracted political opposition amid controversy over Ford’s decision to license intellectual property for those cells from CATL, China’s largest battery company. Ford pushed back on the criticism, arguing that America needs LFP batteries to lower EV costs and “reshore” a technology initially invented in the US. GM, meanwhile, says the IP in its LFP cells is fully owned by the two Ultium partners, LG and itself.
So far, Hyundai-Kia has not said it will offer LFP cells in any of its US EVs. The release date of its 2026 Kia EV4 compact sedan, expected in 2026, is now “delayed until further notice” due to “changed market conditions.” The EV4 was thought to be priced in the mid $30,000s. No VW Group brands, Toyota, Nissan, or other EV makers selling in the US have announced LFP plans.
Make ’Em Smaller
The largest single segment in the US market is small crossover SUVs. Future low-cost EVs will be “the same subcompact and compact segments we know today,” says Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “The larger the vehicle, the higher the cost, and the larger the battery it needs.”
New low-cost EVs can’t be much smaller than today’s small SUVs, and yet they have to remain utility vehicles. The 2026 Nissan Leaf and the 2027 Chevrolet Bolt fit this mold (kind of): They’re tall hatchbacks with the “presence” and “stance” of SUVs, minus all-wheel drive.
The new Leaf S+ starts at $31,485 including mandatory destination fee—and offers an EPA-rated 303 miles of range. The more popular mid-range SV+ still stickers below $36,000 for 288 miles, And Nissan promises a bare-bones Leaf S to come in below $30,000. When the 2027 Chevrolet Bolt LT hits dealers early next year, it will start at $29,990—but a 1LT trim with fewer features will follow later in 2026 for $28,995.
Make ’Em Simpler
Another approach is to offer a very different vehicle at a very low headline cost. Startup Slate Auto plans to offer a $25,000 compact pickup truck that radically simplifies the vehicle: no central touchscreen (drivers mount their phones on the dash), one color (wraps are optional extras), no power accessories (the windows wind manually!). The basic vehicle is a two-door, two-seat, small pickup roughly the size of the gasoline and hybrid Ford Maverick. Slate may be onto something: Reportedly, Toyota is now planning its own smaller EV pickup models.
The $25,000 “Blank Slate” version will have 150 miles of rated range. The sole factory option is a larger pack, at 84.3 kWh versus the base 52.7 kWh, to take range to an estimated 240 miles. Slate hasn’t revealed a price for the bigger battery. A $5,000 accessory converts the two-seat pickup into a five-seat SUV, which can be installed by the owner (out of a flat pack) or by a distributor for a fee. The most popular Slate may cost around $35,000, if it ships by the end of 2026 as planned.
Slate CEO Chris Barman told WIRED that every aspect of the truck and its production were designed to keep costs low. The decision to make one single model allows Slate to build EVs more efficiently by eliminating the complexity of multiple variants—including paint. “Not having metal stamping presses [for large body panels] and a paint shop saved Slate $350 million to $500 million,” she said, based on a projected scale of up to 150,000 vehicles a year.
Will the Slate, Bolt, Leaf, and Ford pickup be joined by other cheap EVs? Sam Fiorani, VP of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, is pessimistic. With the end of incentives, “we shouldn’t expect much growth in the entry-level EV market until around 2030 or later,” he said.
However, for analyst David Thomas of CDK Global, the question is whether shoppers seeking an affordable, efficient car will pick an EV from a known brand over a similarly priced Toyota Prius or Honda Civic Hybrid. A report from Urban Science cites key trends (rising consideration of EVs as more are seen on the road, more manufacturer deals, and better charging infrastructure) that will keep EV sales growing as reasons for optimism.
When Are the Chinese Coming?
The overarching factor defining when cheaper EVs will spread across the US is when Chinese mass EV makers will venture into North America—the most prestigious and profitable global market they’re not presently in. That seems unlikely before the end of the current president’s final term. His first administration put in place steep tariffs on Chinese goods, which were left intact and later reinforced. Canada is a possible wild card; it is rumored to be considering the end of all barriers to Chinese EV imports.
Any foreign maker faces unique challenges in the US market. They’re not insurmountable, as Japanese makers and then Hyundai-Kia showed, but they require decade-long commitments and billions of dollars.
As such, several reasons affect the kinds and prices of Chinese EVs that will be sold in the US. First, to make new-car buyers aware of your brand inevitably costs an awful lot of time and money. For example, Kia’s digital ad spend in the US alone reached $142 million in 2021, 28 years after starting to sell cars in the country. Makers must barrage consumers with ads to let brand awareness sink in, most intensely in the short window when they’re actively shopping.
Second, North Americans drive much bigger vehicles and more SUVs than cars. A 17- to 20-foot Ford F-150 pickup weighing 2 to 3 tons is largely unsellable in much of the rest of the world. Truck buyers are also more brand loyal, and more focused on towing specs than are shoppers for passenger cars and SUVs. That’s tough for affordable EVs. Meanwhile, US sales of “compact” cars—a VW Golf or Jetta, say—have fallen as trucks and SUVs take over the market.
Third, US drivers log more miles each day on average than drivers in Europe, Britain, Japan, Korea, or China. American vehicles cover 33 miles a day on average in the US. A comparable figure for China is 28 miles, and just 20 miles for the European Union. Which means that range is paramount.
The current state of on-road EV fast charging in the US is hardly stellar. On a six-hour, 350-mile journey to visit relations, one charging stop may be OK, even if it’s longer than a fueling stop, but two or three isn’t. Nor is hunting for a working station. Hence, higher range is mandatory—meaning higher-capacity batteries at greater cost.
In other markets, a 150-mile EV may be a sensible choice. Trains are often faster for longer trips anyhow. Not so in the States. Shoppers will only consider EVs that offer “enough” range, which GM surveys show is minimum 300 miles, to ensure an EV can do every trip a gas vehicle can.
Crucially, the Chinese test cycle for determining EV range, known as China Light-Duty Vehicle Test Cycle (CLTC), is even more biased toward lower speeds and stop-and-go city driving than the European version, WLTP—and neither is as grueling as US EPA range ratings. That “300-mile Chinese EV” might well be rated up to one-third lower on the EPA cycle.
For these reasons, many inexpensive EVs now on sale in Europe and China aren’t well suited to North American life. Then there’s the issue of “Federalization”: fitting equipment to comply with US motor-vehicle rules, plus safety structures to ace Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) crash performance ratings. This makes all US vehicles larger, heavier, and pricier.
So, How Long for a Sub-$15k EV?
Analysts vary in their predictions for low-cost EVs and the impact of Chinese models. S&P Global’s Brinley notes “the timing is far from clear,” and Chinese makers’ ability to replicate the same low-cost structure they enjoy at home is unknown.
The final word comes from China automotive hand Michael Dunne, of Dunne Strategies. In the UK, he noted, Chinese EVs—led by BYD and MG—are roughly 15 percent cheaper than Japanese and Korean models. They’ve captured 13 percent of the new-car market, which dealers expect to double or more within two years. “The Chinese don’t have to be scary cheap,” Dunne said. “They just need to be priced low enough to make you pause—then take a closer look.”
With Chinese EVs blocked from the US for the short term, buyers’ best hope right now for cheaper EVs lies in the incremental advances that produced 120 years of auto-industry innovation. Cheaper batteries that improve at roughly 8 percent a year; simpler design and assembly processes; and smaller, more basic cars will all play roles. Shoppers will see more offerings below $40,000, and within a few years, under $30,000.
Will there be 300-mile SUVs for $15,000, as social-media blurbs trumpet? Not any time soon. Consider the frequent best-selling electric model in China, the $6,200 Wuling Hongguang Mini EV. Its sales alone are more than double the total of every EV sold by GM in the US. It’s also just 10 feet long in its four-door version, tops out at 62 mph, and has a range of 75 to 100 miles based on the old, very gentle NEDC driving cycle. American buyers won’t buy a vehicle like that.
The BYD Seagull, now on sale in Europe, is a better candidate, but it’s still rated at only 190 or 250 miles of range on a gentler test regime, and it’s just 12 feet, 4 inches long. Known as the Dolphin Surf in European markets, it costs $25,000 to $30,000 there versus its Chinese price of half that amount—meaning a version that meets European requirements isn’t that much cheaper than a new Bolt EV or Nissan Leaf.
TL/DR: Don’t believe the clickbait. Cheap Chinese EVs present an existential threat to the world’s automakers, no question. But you ain’t getting a $15,000 compact SUV with 300 miles of EPA-rated range and US safety ratings anytime soon. The laws of physics haven’t changed that much. Want an EV for $15K? Buy a used one.
The post When Will the US Finally Get $15K EVs? appeared first on Wired.
