The government shutdown is over. The wait for data about the economy is not.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release its jobs report for September in a matter of days, breaking the six-week data drought that began when federal funding lapsed on Oct. 1.
But economists, policymakers and investors will need to wait weeks for a more up-to-date picture of the labor market, as well as for fresh data on inflation, spending, home-building and more. When the data does begin to flow, it may come with an asterisk — some of the reports may be based on partial information, making them subject to more uncertainty than usual.
And some data will probably never be produced, a permanent gap in understanding that could have lasting consequences.
“I just don’t think we’re ever going to know what happened in October, at least not very accurately,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University.
The lack of reliable information is a challenge for officials at the Federal Reserve, who were already struggling to interpret conflicting economic signals and were divided about how to respond. Policymakers will almost certainly head into their next meeting, on Dec. 9 and Dec. 10, without much of the data that they would usually use to inform their interest rate decisions.
Financial markets have stumbled in recent days as investors have grown nervous that the central bank won’t lower interest rates next month as expected — in part because policymakers won’t have the data they need to convince them that a cut is prudent.
Some economists also worry that the shutdown has done longer-term damage to a statistical system already strained by shrinking budgets and staff turnover.
President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August after a disappointing jobs report. The agency is being run in on a temporary basis by William Wiatrowski, the deputy commissioner, who is respected inside and outside the government. But roughly a third of senior leadership positions at the bureau are vacant, and it has already cut back some data collection because of staff shortages.
William Beach, who led the Bureau of Labor Statistics during the first Trump administration, said he worried that some agency employees simply would not return after the shutdown.
“You don’t know who’s quit, who’s retired, who’s taken another job,” Mr. Beach said.
Long Delays, Permanent Gaps
Exactly when the data releases will resume, and how long the delays will last, remains unclear. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau and other federal statistical agencies are expected to release updated schedules for the delayed reports over the next few days.
Some data should become available relatively quickly. The September jobs report, originally scheduled to be released on Oct. 3, was nearly complete when the government shut down six weeks ago. Some other data from September may also be relatively easy to produce.
But figuring out what was happening in the economy during the period of the shutdown itself could be more challenging. To calculate the Consumer Price Index each month, for example, government workers visit hundreds of businesses around the country to check the prices of thousands of individual items. That data is almost impossible to collect after-the-fact as government price checkers can’t realistically visit stores and ask how much a bag of flour cost a month earlier.
White House officials in recent weeks have said they didn’t expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to publish an October price index at all.
October jobs data is also in question. Monthly payroll figures are based on a survey of employers, which in theory should still be available; businesses presumably have records of how many employees they have had in a given period.
But to calculate the unemployment rate and other closely watched labor market measures, the government conducts a monthly survey of households, in which it asks detailed questions about people’s activity in a specific week: Were they working? If so, for how many hours? If not, why not? Were they looking for work, or caring for family, or in school? Many people are unlikely to remember weeks later.
“You can’t really ask households detailed questions about their labor market experience six weeks ago,” said Jed Kolko, an economist who oversaw economic statistics at the Commerce Department during the Biden administration.
Even if the government could run the survey late, there are practical considerations. The November employment survey is meant to begin next week. Any delay would jeopardize the next jobs report as well.
As a result, most economists said it was impractical for the government to conduct the October household survey — which would result in the first missing month in the survey’s 77-year history.
The gap could have long-lasting repercussions. The household survey tracks the same people for months, so failing to conduct the survey in October could affect its accuracy months later.
That will also affect other economic measures: A measure of wage growth published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, for example, compares people’s earnings in the survey in one month with their earnings in the survey from a year earlier. If the government skips the October survey, that would affect the Atlanta Fed’s measure next fall.
“There is a lot of granular detail that we will lose for the month of October,” said Omair Sharif, the founder of Inflation Insights, a forecasting firm. “There is a ripple effect moving forward as well, because of the way the survey is structured.”
Statistical agencies also need to try to publish the reports they missed while continuing to collect and publish new data. After previous government shutdowns, it took months for the agencies to get fully back on schedule. And because this shutdown was so long, it could take longer to clear the backlog.
“It’s a bit like a Netflix show trying to get to the next episode,” said Michael Horrigan, a former associate commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “You kind of have to back up and say, ‘Okay, where were we?’”
A schedule for the collection and release of the data will answer some questions. But the broader effect of the shutdown, and the pause on data collection, may not be apparent for months.
“This information is so basic that it’s used all through the government and for research and for private sector uses and other statistical agencies,” said Erica Groshen, who led the Bureau of Labor Statistics during the Obama administration. “It can be hard to know in advance what the ramifications are.”
Ben Casselman is the chief economics correspondent for The Times. He has reported on the economy for nearly 20 years.
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