We are coming off a winning week, thanks to the Los Angeles Rams, the Detroit Lions and a lack of scoring in the New York Giants-Chicago Bears game. Unfortunately, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans decided to put a bunch of points on the board, preventing a perfect showing.
We are coming off a winning week, thanks to the Los Angeles Rams, the Detroit Lions and a lack of scoring in the New York Giants-Chicago Bears game. Unfortunately, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans decided to put a bunch of points on the board, preventing a perfect showing.
This week’s slate features one matchup unfolding overseas, where travel and tempo could tilt things toward one side. Another features a battle in the trenches that might favor the team few expect. And the third could hinge on whether both offenses can sustain drives in a game that might not deliver the fireworks many anticipate.
Best bets record: 15-24
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. | In Madrid | NFL Network
Pick: Dolphins -2½
This season is a mess for the Commanders, and they will be without six defensive starters plus their star quarterback, starting running back and top two wide receivers. Miami, meanwhile, is coming off a 30-13 victory against the Buffalo Bills. I made the Dolphins a slight favorite heading into this game, and the injuries for Washington push it much more in their favor.
When several players in the same position group get hurt, as is the case for Washington’s defensive backfield, the impact adds up fast. Losing one cornerback usually doesn’t change much in terms of betting lines, but if a team loses multiple players in a position group, that can shift the line by two points or more. This is particularly true for a team’s secondary, where a lack of communication can lead to busted coverages and a major impact on the game’s outcome.
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Panthers +3½
The Panthers, despite not being as good as their 5-5 record suggests, match up well with Atlanta, and several key factors line up in their favor. Specifically, Carolina’s strength is its running game, which ranks among the league’s best, while Atlanta’s run defense is one of the worst.
The Panthers gain a first down or score a touchdown on 73 percent of their third- or fourth-down rushes with two yards or less to go, and they only get stuffed at the line of scrimmage for no gain or negative yards 14 percent of the time. Those rank 11th and eighth, respectively, this season, per data from Aaron Schatz. On defense, Atlanta ranks 18th and 31st in those situations.
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Under 44 total points (The pick is Jaguars +2½, but it is not a best bet)
Los Angeles is dealing with injury issues on its offensive line that were made worse with tackle Joe Alt’s season-ending injury. The Jaguars, meanwhile, score on just 37 percent of their drives. Both elements will help depress scoring in this one.
The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to occur on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video
Pick: Jets +12½
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Vikings -3
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Texans -7
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Bengals +5½
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Bills -5½
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Packers -7
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Rams -3
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | Fox
Pick: 49ers -2½
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Browns +8½
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Chiefs -3½
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC
Pick: Eagles -2½
Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ESPN, ABC
Pick: Raiders +3½
The post Best NFL bets for Week 11: Fade the Commanders in Madrid
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