Hamas’s Top Political Leader Assassinated in Iran

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the killing of a top Hamas official in Iran, an assassination attempt on Sudan’s de facto leader, and Ukraine repelling a massive Russian drone strike.

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‘Dangerous Escalation’

A targeted strike killed Hamas’s top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on Wednesday. The attack, widely assumed to have been carried out by Israel, marks the highest-profile assassination of a Hamas official since its war with Israel broke out nearly 10 months ago. With regional tensions already high after an Israeli strike killed senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on Tuesday, analysts fear that Haniyeh’s death could spark an all-out war between Israel and some of its Middle East neighbors.

“There are challenging days ahead,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised statement on Wednesday, adding that Israel will “exact a very heavy price” for future retaliation. However, he didn’t specifically mention Haniyeh’s killing, and the Israeli military has declined to comment on the assassination.

The timing, target, and location of the operation could have significant ramifications for the region. Haniyeh left the Gaza Strip in 2019 and has since lived in exile in Qatar while frequently visiting Hamas’s patrons in Iran. On Tuesday, Haniyeh attended Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration alongside leaders from Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, both of which are also backed by Iran.

Tehran’s failure to protect the leader of an ally in its capital represents a serious security breach for the country. “We consider his revenge as our duty,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held an emergency meeting on Wednesday to address the assassination, in which Khamenei ordered Iran to directly attack Israel, according to three Iranian officials. It is unclear what the strike might entail. However, when Tehran launched a direct attack on Israel in April, prior warning allowed Israel—with help from other countries—to intercept nearly all of Iran’s weapons.

Experts fear that Haniyeh’s death and further Israeli actions could upset ongoing cease-fire negotiations. Haniyeh “was someone who saw the value of a deal and was instrumental to getting certain breakthroughs in the talks,” a diplomat in the region said in a statement to FP’s Amy Mackinnon. Although Netanyahu could use the assassination as political cover to agree to a truce, “[k]illing Haniyeh means that an influential advocate for a ceasefire is gone and that [Hamas military leader Yahya] Sinwar will, perhaps, become even more obstinate,” wrote Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent for the Economist.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Haniyeh’s assassination, and the Qatari Foreign Ministry called it a “heinous crime” and a “dangerous escalation.” Qatar hosts Hamas’s political bureau. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington was not aware of nor involved in the operation, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated the importance of diplomatic efforts to end the war.

Western powers have spent the past four days trying to ease regional tensions after an alleged Hezbollah attack last Saturday killed 12 children in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israel’s retaliatory attack, killing Shukr, carried more military significance than Haniyeh’s assassination, former Israeli National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror told reporters on Wednesday. Shukr was “a very important figure in the leadership of Hezbollah, and it’s not easy to find a substitute.” Shukr was also wanted by the FBI for his alleged involvement in the 1983 Beirut barracks bombings, which killed 241 U.S. military personnel.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Wednesday that Israel does not want its strike on Shukr to provoke a greater Middle East war, “but we are preparing for all possibilities.” Meanwhile, Hamas’s military wing said Haniyeh’s assassination “takes the battle to new dimensions and will have major repercussions on the entire region.”

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Failed attack. Sudanese Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan survived an assassination attempt on Wednesday, army spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said. Burhan is the country’s de facto leader and head of the Sudanese Armed Forces, which has been locked in a civil war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for more than a year. Abdallah blamed the RSF for launching the two drone strikes, which hit an army base in the eastern town of Gebeit and killed at least five people at a graduation ceremony. RSF legal advisor Mohamed al-Mukhtar denied the group’s involvement.

The Sudanese military and the RSF were set to participate in U.S.-mediated talks next month in Geneva, but following Wednesday’s attack, Burhan appeared to rule out attendance. “We will not retreat, we will not surrender, and we will not negotiate,” he said.

War in Sudan has created one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. More than 9 million people have fled their homes, around 18,000 people have been killed, and nearly 27 million people have experienced food insecurity. “I think the worst-case scenario in Sudan is a 20-, 25-year version of Somalia on steroids,” U.S. special envoy for Sudan Tom Perriello told FP’s Robbie Gramer last month.

Massive drone assault intercepted. Ukraine on Wednesday repelled one of the largest drone attacks that Russia has launched against it since the war began over two years ago. According to the Ukrainian military, Moscow sent 89 drones and one missile primarily at the region in and around Kyiv, all of which Ukrainian forces intercepted. The attack, which largely used Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 strike drones, lasted more than seven hours and came in two waves. No casualties were reported.

Wednesday’s operation was the largest attack on Ukraine’s capital this year and the seventh time that Moscow has targeted the city this month. The last Russian assault of this scale hit Ukraine in December 2023 and killed at least 31 people. Kyiv has repeatedly called for more air defense systems to combat the Kremlin’s attacks. On Monday, the United States announced a $1.7 billion military aid package that will provide Ukraine with missiles and ammunition for missile, artillery, and air defense systems.

Suspended funding. The United States paused $95 million in assistance to Georgia on Wednesday in response to Tbilisi adopting a controversial foreign agents law in May. The legislation requires all civil society organizations and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as “agents of foreign influence.” Washington’s decision adds to already imposed visa bans on several Georgian politicians and officials for suppressing free speech.

“The Georgian government’s anti-democratic actions and false statements are incompatible with membership norms” in the European Union and NATO, Blinken said. Georgia is currently seeking membership in both of these blocs, though talks have largely stalled due to the foreign agents law, which many experts argue is similar to a Russian policy that has been used to target political dissidents.

Odds and Ends

North and South Korea share a fragile and dangerous border, but at this year’s Paris Olympics, athletes from the two bitterly divided countries found a rare moment of unity. On Tuesday, Olympic table tennis medalists from both sides of the Korean Peninsula as well as China took a Victory Selfie together in what some are calling “the most meaningful image of this Olympics.” This is the first year that winners are allowed to take photos of themselves while on the podium. Sports diplomacy at its finest.

The post Hamas’s Top Political Leader Assassinated in Iran appeared first on Foreign Policy.