Donald Trump Could Regret Any Potential Move To Replace JD Vance

The fallout of Donald Trump replacing JD Vance as his 2024 running mate could be worse for the former president than keeping the Ohio senator on the GOP ticket, according to an expert.

Christopher Devine, an associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton and author of the book Do Running Mates Matter?: The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections, said it is always a “bad idea” for any presidential hopeful to drop their vice presidential candidate from the ticket, unless “absolutely necessary.”

Vance has faced ongoing criticism since he accepted the role of Trump’s running mate at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 17 due to his previous comments about women, abortion, and those without children, as well as historically low approval ratings for a VP nominee.

The campaign team for Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive 2024 Democratic nominee, has also doubled down on their attacks on Vance, including suggesting he is “weird” and off-putting to voters.

There had already been suggestions that Vance was a bad choice for a running mate as the MAGA senator does not broaden the appeal of the GOP ticket. Trump and his team have frequently denied suggestions that the former president is regretting picking Vance as his running mate, saying he is “thrilled” with his pick.

Devine has now suggested that Trump’s leadership decision making qualities will be highly questioned if he opts to swap running mates with just over three months until November’s election.

“Voters use the choice of a running mate to evaluate a presidential candidate’s judgment and leadership skills,” Devine told Newsweek.

“If Donald Trump—having had months to vet candidates and make this choice—abandons JD Vance, voters will question his ability to lead as president.

“It’s better to stick with a running mate who is underperforming than to tell voters that you can’t be trusted to make a presidential decision and stick with it,” Devine added.

There are no rules in place to forcibly remove a vice presidential candidate from the GOP ticket, meaning Vance would have to voluntarily step aside in order to be replaced.

Vance’s and Trump’s teams have been contacted for comment via email.

Any suggestion that Trump will replace Vance as his running mate is pure speculation, and currently seems an unlikely scenario.

Polymarket, an online platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of world events, is currently offering a 12 percent chance that the Ohio senator will be replaced as the GOP’s vice presidential nominee.

Such a move is also extremely rare, with the last occurrence taking place in 1972 when Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern replaced Missouri Senator Thomas Eagleton as his running mate after just 19 days after Eagleton revealed he had received treatment for depression, including electroshock therapy.

Mitchell Brown, a political science professor at Auburn University, previously told Newsweek that there are still a number of qualities for Vance which could appeal to voters.

“He is a veteran, he’s from Ohio, so he’s part of the Rust Belt, he’s a pretty young guy, he’s charismatic, he’s a fairly attractive guy,” Brown said.

“In a lot of ways, he has a lot of qualities that, though different politically, that we saw that were attractive to people from a populist perspective when [former President] Bill Clinton first came on the national scene.”

Trump’s communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement that the former president has no intention of dropping Vance from the ticket while also attacking Harris’ “moronic, too-online” campaign.

“President Trump is thrilled with the choice he made with Senator Vance to be his running mate, and they are the perfect team to take back the White House,” Cheung said.