ARLINGTON, Va. — Virginia could be one of the states most affected by President Donald Trump’s moves to shrink the federal workforce — and this year’s race for governor will test whether the slashing approach is a political loser, winner or nonissue in a state home to more than 340,000 federal workers, according to census data.
Already, there are signs of how the disruption could shape the state’s political climate: NBC News spoke with more than a dozen voters around the state who participated in past NBC News polls and said they were not strongly aligned with either party. All were aware of the ongoing federal layoffs, with some expressing deep concern about the effect on Virginia workers and those receiving federal benefits, though most were not yet tuned into the governor’s race.
Meanwhile, in Arlington, a man named Matthew who was not comfortable sharing his last name, told NBC News on Tuesday that he expects the recent layoffs of federal workers to factor into his 2025 vote for governor — as the self-described political independent attended his first Democratic Party event, a week after losing his own federal government job. He was one of more than 300 Virginians who packed the Arlington library auditorium Tuesday night for a county party town hall on the recent federal layoffs.
“I didn’t expect the Republicans to have anything,” Matthew said, later adding, “They’re all supportive of what’s going on right now, right?”
As one of two states that holds races for governor the year after a presidential election, Virginia has long been seen as an early-warning indicator in national politics, highlighting trends that drive the next year’s congressional campaigns, as well as the remainder of a president’s term. In 2025, that means measuring reaction to the Trump administration and its biggest, most impactful moves, including the government cuts spearheaded by Trump adviser Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, and his Department of Government Efficiency.
Matthew noted the upcoming governor’s race, saying he’s received more information about the layoffs from the Democratic candidate, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, than the state’s Republican leaders, including GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who cannot run for re-election because of term limits.
Asked if the recent layoffs could factor into his vote for governor, Matthew said, “100%.”
Taking sides
Spanberger is so far the only Democrat in the governor’s race, while Youngkin’s lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, is running for the GOP nomination with his backing. Dave LaRock, a former state legislator, launched his campaign Wednesday and has signaled an intention to run to Earle-Sears’ right. (One of LaRock’s first campaign promises is to create a state-level DOGE operation in Virginia.) Both parties are scheduled to hold a June 17 primary election.
Spanberger and other Democrats have described the widespread layoffs, which are expected to grow, as an attack on the state’s economy, warning that local businesses will suffer as families struggle to make ends meet.
“This frankly isn’t about politics,” Spanberger said in a recent interview with NBC News, later adding, “It is a chaotic circumstance coming out of this White House and this administration, and it is deeply, deeply damaging to real people and real jobs and real families.”
“I’m going to continue to push lawmakers in both parties to stand up for Virginians, to stand up for Virginia jobs, to stand up for Virginia’s economy and, frankly, to be proactive in planning ahead for what’s coming down the road,” Spanberger said.
Earle-Sears has praised the White House’s DOGE effort while also pointing to the Youngkin administration’s investments in the private sector of the Virginia economy as a reason that fired workers shouldn’t fret.
Her campaign declined to comment for this story. In comments this month to the Fredericksburg Free Press, Earle-Sears said she was “glad” that Trump was “getting to the bottom” of alleged waste and fraud in the federal government. She added that “we know that we do want people to be employed,” but it’s also important to know “how are we spending the taxpayers’ money.”
In that interview, she said “Virginia is going to be alright” and pointed to recent investments the governor’s administration made in the local economy.
Youngkin, for his part, has praised Trump’s DOGE effort, too, while also launching a website that effectively serves as a job board for what he said were 250,000 open jobs across Virginia.
“I don’t believe that the federal government downsizing is wrong,” Youngkin said at a press conference this week. “I actually have extraordinary empathy for the fact that there are many workers in Virginia today or from our federal workforce, who are experiencing real concerns,” he added, before saying this downsizing “needs to happen.”
Spanberger and other Democrats have slammed Youngkin’s response to the layoffs, with Spanberger saying that it is an “absolute disgrace” that Youngkin has not appealed to Trump and forcefully denounced them.
‘Ground zero’
Some Republican strategists warned that it remains too early to fully understand the impact the cuts could have in the race — but that the Youngkin tack to emphasize existing economic and job opportunities and his administration’s private investment was a smart countermove.
“Virginia has had nearly $90 billion in capital commitments from private sector companies, to expand, to grow, and to hire in Virginia,” said Virginia-based Republican strategist Zack Roday, who previously worked with Younkgin through his Sprit of Virginia PAC but is not working with the Earle-Sears campaign. “That’s what gets Virginia’s economy roaring.”
“The effort to make government work efficiently, and transparently, is good policy and good politics. It’s what people voted for and the right thing to do,” Roday added.
But Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist and veteran of Virginia campaigns, suggested that Republicans’ response could come back to haunt them.
”In a lot of ways, Virginia is ground zero for the consequences of defunding the federal government and Winsome Sears and the Republican Party have said they want to own that,” Ferguson said. He noted that the layoffs could cause voters to tune into the governor’s race earlier than expected and crystallize the stakes.
Virginia Democratic Party Chairwoman Susan Swecker told NBC News that local county parties are seeing heightened interest and high turnout at their events.
Democrats also plan to use the layoffs as part of a broader case against Republicans, arguing that they are prioritizing loyalty to Trump over the state’s best interests.
“Governors are very, very good, historically and typically, standing up and stating plain all the things they want from the federal government,” Spanberger said. But she added that means standing up to Trump, and said the GOP is “at this moment in time failing this leadership test.”
But Roday said that the idea of “government efficiency and the federal worker paid for by the taxpayer” has “pretty electric connectivity to the regular voter.” He added: “There’s a lot of people across the Commonwealth, in the Tidewater, in central and Shenandoah in southwest, the Richmond metro, that are not federal workers, that would see this as pure common sense.”
Jimmy Keady, a Republican strategist who works with several Virginia state legislative candidates, said that the federal layoffs are “going to be a problem,” pointing to the party’s loss in the 2013 gubernatorial race amid a government shutdown as a cautionary tale for GOP candidates.
”It’s an issue they’re going to have to directly talk about, and move on and talk about the success Youngkin has had on the economy,” he said.
Still, Democrats believe this issue will have a lasting impact on the race.
“Everyone has an uncle or a grandparent who still retells the story of when their parent got laid off,” Ferguson, the Democratic strategist, said. “This isn’t an experience that gets erased easily in people’s minds”
Early voter reaction
Some Virginia voters said the cuts will factor into their vote later this year.
“Certainly it’s going to make me not want to vote for a Republican,” Marc, a 67-year-old retired resident of Alexandria, said in a phone interview. A former Republican who has supported Democrats in recent years, Marc said he personally knows federal workers who have lost their jobs and he is planning to support Spanberger.
Others, however, said that while the cuts were top of mind for them, they wouldn’t necessarily play a role in how they vote.
Roderick Boyd, a 58-year-old public school teacher from Buchanan, a rural area in central Virginia, said it was “just shocking and disappointing that the federal government sees fit to to eliminate jobs that are primarily focused on helping people who can’t help themselves, and providing oversight to make sure that the general consumers are protected.”
But Boyd, who said he voted for Harris in 2024, Biden in 2020 and Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the state’s 2021 race for governor, said he hasn’t yet decided whom he’d support in this year’s contest.
“Youngkin has been a decent governor so far,” he said. “He’s been a better governor than I was afraid that he was going to be when he was running,” Boyd said, “so I’ve not ruled out” voting for Earle-Sears.
Boyd said he wasn’t following the race closely yet — “I’ve been focused on following the Trump-Musk circus,” he said.
Other voters were supportive of the cuts.
Trent Hay, a 21-year-old student from Virginia Beach who said he voted for Trump in 2024, praised the DOGE cuts as “justified” and said he agreed with “the desire to re-evaluate” federal jobs “across the board.”
Hay added, “I don’t see it being something that affects” his vote. He also said when it came to Elon Musk, the DOGE cuts “makes me like him more.”
Bob, a 67-year-old retiree and self-described conservative from Prince William County, also supported the cuts, saying it is “worthwhile take a look” at government spending. And while the layoffs would not affect his vote, he is generally looking to support a candidate who is willing to stand up to their party.
“I certainly would prefer a candidate who is for Virginia first,” he said.
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