Austria heads to the polls on Sunday for a pivotal parliamentary election that could reshape the nation’s political landscape. The vote is being closely watched because it could lead to a government headed by a far-right chancellor, a first since the end of World War II.
Far-right parties have gained some momentum across Europe, including in Austria, where the Freedom Party is leading in the polls. Here’s what to know about the election.
Why does this election matter?
Austria’s Parliament, or Nationalrat, will be elected on the heels of a European Union parliamentary election that saw far-right parties making gains across the 27-member alliance. Austria’s nationalist, anti-immigration Freedom Party came in first in the country, with 25.4 percent of the votes, and preliminary polling suggests the group may be even more successful in the country’s general election. The Freedom Party has been in government three times since 1990. In 1999, Europeans reacted with horror, swiftly imposing diplomatic sanctions on Austria.
But the reaction from across the continent was more muted in 2017 when Sebastian Kurz, a conservative chancellor, formed a government with the Freedom Party. By that time, all of Europe had shifted more toward the right, with both Hungary and Poland run by leaders from right-wing parties.
Who is running and who is likely to win?
The far-right Freedom Party is leading the polls, followed most closely by the conservative Austrian People’s Party and the center-left Social Democratic Party.
Donatienne Ruy, a Europe, Russia and Eurasia fellow at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, described the Freedom Party as “far-right, populist, anti-immigration, euroskeptic and pro-Russia.” It was founded by a former Nazi officer and was ejected from government in 2019 following a major corruption scandal. It has since recovered and is running on a slogan of “Fortress Austria, Fortress for Freedom.”
Freedom Party leaders presented a campaign platform that prioritized deportation and decreasing asylum applications.
The Freedom Party may have a ceiling on the number of supporters, said Reinhard Heinisch, a political scientist and professor of Austrian politics at the University of Salzburg in Austria. “It’s a very popular party with a third of the population, and it’s extremely unpopular with the other two-thirds,” he said, adding that many Austrians would refuse to support the far-right party at all costs.
Several other smaller parties, such as the Greens, are lower in the polls but could divide votes among people who do not support the Freedom Party.
What are the main issues?
Though inflation rates have greatly eased over the last several months, cost of living remains a major factor in this election.
“There is a sense of exhaustion around when things are going to change because of inflation,” Ms. Ruy said. “Energy prices are quite high and I think people are looking for something that’s going to feel different regardless of how distasteful some of those parties can be.”
Russia’s war with Ukraine and its effect on Austria’s economy is feeding political discontent within the country. Austria remains dependent on Russian natural gas and oil. Before the war, Russia was an important market for Austrian products; and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused inflation to jump to threefold, although it has since dropped below 3 percent.
While other parties have distanced themselves from Moscow, the Freedom Party has done the opposite, said Mr. Heinisch. The party is making the case that severing ties with Russia was a mistake, and that European and American elites are forcing Austrians to support economic sanctions that hurt their country.
Immigration is another central issue in this election. In the 1990s, Austria saw an enormous influx of migrants from the Balkans and Eastern Europe, and far-right groups have continued to champion anti-immigrant stances since.
A series of Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna were canceled after a terrorist plot was foiled in August. One of the suspects was reportedly an 18-year-old Iraqi citizen, the others Austrian, and the cancellation led to national debate about immigration and safety, Mr. Heinisch said.
An anti-establishment mood has permeated much of Europe, including Austria, resulting in the rise of some far-right parties, experts said.
How does voting work in Austria?
Parliament’s 183 members are elected to five-year terms by a popular vote in the electoral districts of Austria’s nine states.
The council is elected by proportional representation, meaning seats are allocated based on the percentage of the vote each party garners. Votes are cast for a specific party, and then voters are able to indicate preference for a particular candidate within that party.
Individual parties must receive at least 4 percent of the votes for representation in Parliament; the leader of the largest party elected to it is typically appointed chancellor.
Austrians will cast paper ballots at schools, churches and other polling places. The results are tallied locally with representatives of the competing parties present; the results are then reported to the interior ministry.
When will we know the results?
Votes are usually tallied quickly on the same day, with exception of mail-in ballots, which can be slightly delayed. The ministry announces official preliminary results after voting ends but the final count will not be certified or announced until after mail-in ballots are counted a day or two later.
But depending on the results, it may could take weeks, if not months, for the new government to form a coalition government with other elected parties.
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