A day after President Trump announced an emerging deal with Iran, Lebanon found itself in a familiar position on Sunday — waiting on outside powers to determine whether the latest war to devastate the country was drawing to an end.
After Hezbollah fired on Israel in March in solidarity with its patron, Tehran, the country was dragged into a conflict that has killed more than 3,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands more.
Despite a U.S.-brokered temporary cease-fire that went into effect on April 17, Israel and Hezbollah have continued to clash, with each side accusing the other of violating the truce. That fighting has escalated in recent weeks, exposing the limits of the cease-fire and stoking fears that the truce could collapse into another full-blown war.
But on Sunday, Lebanon faced the prospect that the agreement announced by Mr. Trump could bring much-needed calm after years of upheaval.
While its terms are murky, three senior Iranian officials told The New York Times that the agreement would halt the fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon. Even so, skepticism over what that could mean was widespread after two cease-fires in two years did little to pacify the conflict.
In a written statement issued to reporters, an Israeli government official said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had spoken to Mr. Trump on Saturday night and told him that Israel would not compromise on its freedom to act against all threats, including in Lebanon. Iran has frequently demanded an end to Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon as part of an agreement.
After the nominal cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024, Israel continued striking Hezbollah infrastructure and personnel in Lebanon in an effort to degrade the group’s military capacity. Hezbollah largely held its fire for more than a year until the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran began in late February.
In the months since, Hezbollah has demonstrated that it has retained its ability to fight.
If Lebanon is included in a U.S.-Iran deal, “Hezbollah will likely spin it as a victory or proof that Iran remains powerful and is the only one that can push the U.S. to force Israel into a cease-fire,” said Paul Salem, a former senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. “That will strengthen their resolve and confidence that Iran is not fading away in the region and that will make them harden their line internally.”
An emboldened Hezbollah may also make it harder for the Lebanese government to move against them, Mr. Salem said. There has been slow momentum over the past year to loosen Hezbollah’s grip on the Lebanese state, which has been building for decades.
It also remains unclear whether and how any deal would address the fundamental issues at play in the war in Lebanon, including disarming Hezbollah and Israeli troops withdrawing from the stretch of Lebanese territory they now occupy along the border that stretches at its deepest six miles into Lebanon.
Christina Goldbaum is The Times’s bureau chief in Beirut, leading coverage of Lebanon and Syria.
The post Fate of War in Lebanon Rests With Outside Powers appeared first on New York Times.
