It looks like 2026 could be a banger year for IPOs.
After a slowdown in blockbuster public debuts, two of the most closely watched private tech companies are expected to go public this year: SpaceX and OpenAI.
While reports last year suggested both companies would go public in 2026, recent developments have fueled speculation about when and how it could happen.
Reuters reported Thursday that Elon Musk’s rocket company SpaceX was eyeing a merger with xAI, Musk’s AI company, ahead of a potential IPO. Bloomberg later reported that SpaceX was also considering merging with Tesla, which is a public company.
Also on Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI was planning for an IPO in the fourth quarter as it races to beat Anthropic, an AI competitor, to market.
Here’s what smart people in tech and business are saying about the potential IPOs of two of the world’s most valuable private companies.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya, a prominent venture capitalist and former Facebook exec, said, “A merger between SpaceX and Tesla would instantly create the Berkshire Hathaway of the modern century.”
“The capital raising and operational efficiencies if both were together are obvious,” Palihapitiya wrote on X. “If this were to happen, it would also bring us one step closer to having one equity instrument for all things Elon, which many would want to buy.”
A merger between SpaceX and Tesla would instantly create the Berkshire Hathaway of the modern century.The capital raising and operational efficiencies if both were together are obvious. If this were to happen, it would also bring us one step closer to having one equity…
— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) January 29, 2026
Eric Berger
Eric Berger, the senior space editor at Ars Technica, said talks of a merger between SpaceX and xAI shouldn’t be a “huge surprise.”
“If you believe AI is the future; and that compute is the major problem to solve; and orbital data centers are feasible—then the combined company would be a vertically integrated AI colossus,” he wrote on X.
The reported merger talks between SpaceX and xAI should not come as a huge surprise. If you believe AI is the future; and that compute is the major problem to solve; and orbital data centers are feasible—then the combined company would be a vertically integrated AI colossus.
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) January 29, 2026
Noah Smith
Noah Smith, a former Bloomberg journalist who now writes a popular economics substack, shared his concerns over OpenAI’s future success in a post titled “What if AI succeeds but OpenAI fails?”
An OpenAI IPO will raise “many more billions in cash, this time from regular investors,” said Smith, but Sam Altman’s company could be “an early leader that flames out.”
“Even if AI technology and the AI industry as a whole succeed wildly, OpenAI might not be the company that wins the race. That could leave a lot of investors holding the bag,” he said.
“It could also cause a temporary — but unwarranted — chill in AI investment in the US, allowing Chinese companies to take the lead.”
Ross Gerber
Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, told The Information that he would not purchase SpaceX stock if the company goes public.
SpaceX is “not really a great business in the sense of profitability,” said Gerber. “To pay a trillion and a half dollars for a space company that does $15 billion in revenue is just insanity.”
“If you’re going to pay 2x or 3x just because it’s Elon’s company, I wish you the best of luck, and it’s not something I am going to do,” he said.
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