CNN’s data expert Harry Enten has made a dire prediction for the box office success of the vanity documentary Melania.
Melania is having a MAGA premiere at the Kennedy Centre this Thursday, before opening in cinemas worldwide from Friday, including in over 1,500 theaters across the U.S.
Donald Trump, who is often verbose on Truth Social, managed to call the documentary on his wife a “MUST WATCH” and claimed it was “Selling out, FAST!”
The 79-year-old reportedly saw the documentary for the first time on a private screening on Saturday night at a makeshift cinema set up at the White House. Billionaires including Apple CEO Tim Cook watched the film just hours after ICU nurse Alex Pretti was shot dead by federal agents in Minnesota.
Speaking on Erin Burnett OutFront on Tuesday, Enten said Melania currently had a 63 percent chance of getting a dismal rating of below 20 percent on movie rating site Rotten Tomatoes.
The site aggregates reviews of new movies-if it gets over 60 percent positive reviews it is considered “fresh”, anything less is considered “rotten.” Critical reviews of the documentary have yet to be seen.
Enten said the below 20 percent score according to prediction market odds was “not good” and said the documentary had been predicted to take between $1 million and $5 million in the opening weekend box office.
“Not so great,” Enten said. He compared it to Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 which had the highest-grossing opening weekend for a documentary in U.S. history, making $23.9 million 2004, which Enten said was $41 million now, accounting for inflation.
“Melania is not anywhere close,” he said of the film, whose director Brett Ratner has been banished from Hollywood after being accused of sexual assault in 2017, claims he has denied.
CNN also discussed the budget for Melania, which was funded by Amazon. The $75 million price tag includes $40 million to purchase the rights to the documentary and a further $35 million spent on marketing costs.
“All of the advertising, all of that jazz to try and build up that audience, which right now doesn‘t seem like they‘re rushing to actually see it,” Enten said.
The stats guru then pointed out that Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos “is doing quite well” under the Trump presidency, with his wealth rising by $35 billion since November 2024.
“I think there are some people who might see a connection between that and the money being spent [on Melania],” Enten claimed.
Amazon are releasing Melania worldwide on Friday, however the global demand for the documentary appears to be soft.
In London, one ticket has been sold at Vue cinema in Islington for the first 3:10 p.m screening on Friday, with two tickets booked for 6 p.m.
In Australia, one screening on Friday at Sydney’s Hoyts Warringah Mall has not sold one single ticket. At a cinema in Cronulla, one person is going according to 9 News.
In the U.K. one film industry insider told The Guardian they believed “four-walling” was being used, where distributors pay each cinema who agrees to screen a film a set fee.
The Hollywood Reporter said the Kennedy Centre guest list for the premiere includes reality stars Todd and Julie Chrisley, who Trump pardoned last year.
Other guests include rapper Waka Flocka Flame, Dr. Oz, Dr. Phil and former New York mayor Eric Adams.
MAGA names expected to attend include Second Lady Usha Vance, Trump’s Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and embattled Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
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