At a moment of extraordinary tension in the U.S.-Mexico relationship, the Mexican government is choosing to remain Cuba’s oil lifeline.
For decades, Venezuela filled that role, sending up to 100,000 barrels of oil per day at the height of Hugo Chávez’s rule. In recent years, as Venezuela’s oil output faltered, Mexico has stepped up. According to industry data, it became the top supplier of oil to Cuba last year — well before the ouster of Nicolás Maduro.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has been justifying this policy as “humanitarian aid.”
Ideologically, Sheinbaum is following in the footsteps of her mentor, former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Under his watch, Mexico repeatedly sided with left-wing governments in the region despite their deplorable humanitarian records. After the 2024 electoral fraud in Venezuela, López Obrador criticized the Organization of American States for refusing to recognize the vote despite detailed findings from international observers. And he welcomed Cuba’s leader with full honors while Havana intensified arrests of journalists and dissidents.
More troubling still, the Sheinbaum administration may be downplaying the extent of the support it is providing to Cuba. According to reporting by the anti-corruption watchdog Mexicanos Contra la Corrupción, Pemex last year shipped roughly $3 billion worth of oil to Cuba, while officially reporting only about $400 million to the United States.
While the Trump administration has not publicly detailed its full strategy toward Cuba, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signaled that the U.S. intends to bypass the Cuban government and direct assistance toward the Cuban people. Some members of Congress say Mexico’s approach points in the opposite direction.
In a recent interview, Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (R-Florida) told me the Mexican government’s invocation of humanism “is an excuse President Sheinbaum is using to help Cuba sustain its regime because they match ideologically.” He added that Mexico is “propping up a dictatorship that denies its people their human rights.”
Indeed, funneling oil into Cuba does not seem to benefit the Cuban people. Cuba continues to endure chronic food shortages, blackouts and appalling poverty, and political repression has intensified. Mexico’s oil is only helping to entrench the brutal regime.
Gimenez said he expects Mexico to face “consequences” for its policy choices during the upcoming U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiations, describing trade talks as “the only mechanism we have to modify the Mexican government’s actions.” He also said he does not consider Mexico “an American ally” in the region.
This should be taken as a warning, not dismissed as political grandstanding. Under the USMCA, the successor agreement to NAFTA, more than $935 billion in goods and services cross the U.S.-Mexico border each year, making it one of the most important bilateral economic relationships in the world. While any serious disruption would have immediate economic consequences on both sides of the border, it would be foolish to think the Trump administration won’t act.
Mexico’s security situation is another constant concern. Within the U.S. government, there are voices pushing President Donald Trump to intervene militarily in Mexico under the supposed aim of combating organized crime. That such an intervention would jeopardize ongoing security, intelligence and law enforcement cooperation may matter little in this White House.
For better or worse, Sheinbaum will soon be forced to choose. Amid Venezuela’s collapse, Cuba’s economic free-fall and broader geopolitical tensions — especially in the Western Hemisphere — Mexico cannot openly sustain the Cuban dictatorship while simultaneously expecting goodwill or flexibility from Washington.
Mexico can defend its sovereignty and chart its own course but not to the point of irresponsibility. If obstinacy triumphs over pragmatism, the costs will be real, immediate and borne by regular working people — as it usually is when committed ideologues get their way.
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