There’s one certainty about travel in 2026: uncertainty.
Vacationers throughout the Caribbean must suddenly factor the risk of U.S. military action in places like Venezuela or Cuba into their plans. President Trump’s immigration crackdown and restrictive border policies continue to cause some prospective travelers to think twice before coming to the United States. And for the adventurous hoping to explore Greenland, the threat of American annexation may be reason enough to hold off.
Members of the United States Tour Operators Association ranked economic uncertainty as their biggest threat in 2026. “What I can recommend for U.S. travelers in 2026,” Terry Dale, chief executive of the group, wrote in a statement, “is to do their research and prepare.”
One giant question mark is this summer’s World Cup, with matches in 11 U.S. cities as well as in Canada and Mexico. The Trump administration has fully or partly blocked entry into the United States for citizens of four countries whose teams have already qualified: Ivory Coast, Haiti, Iran and Senegal. The prospect of similar moves toward other countries could make international fans hesitate before spending thousands on expensive tickets, hotels and transportation.
Climate change also continues to drive a rise in extreme weather events like severe hurricanes, flooding and wildfires, all of which are increasingly disrupting travel plans, even in places like North Carolina or Los Angeles that once seemed like safe bets.
All this has left the U.S. tourism economy facing headwinds. The number of foreign visitors to the United States dropped about 5 percent in 2025, according to the research firm Tourism Economics, though it projects that those numbers will partly rebound this year.
Still, nearly 90 percent of U.S.T.O.A. members anticipate higher sales this year compared with 2025, which suggests “that despite today’s unpredictable global climate, travelers remain motivated to explore,” Mr. Dale wrote.
So how do you factor uncertainty into your itinerary? Consider booking changeable or refundable flights and hotels, and know what your travel insurance does and doesn’t cover. (Yes, that means reading the fine print.) Get to your cruise’s departure city two days early, or three. You never know when a storm or a military operation will put a wrench in your plans.
Gabe Castro-Root is a travel reporter and a member of the 2025-26 Times Fellowship class, a program for journalists early in their careers.
The post The New Wild Card on Travelers’ Itineraries: Uncertainty appeared first on New York Times.
