The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the next potential winter storm that could bring a swath of snow across the eastern half of the U.S., including the Tennessee River Valley, the Carolinas, and even the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast sometime midweek.
The setup for this storm is different from the traditional cross-country storms that have brought snowy conditions across the Northern Tier since the beginning of December.
A number of variable factors could produce differences in the system’s track, making snowfall amounts highly variable—particularly for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
A range of scenarios covers that portion of the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor, from little to no accumulation to an impactful snowstorm with plowable snow beginning Thursday.
Meanwhile, computer forecast models have greater confidence that snow will break out across the Tennessee River Valley and southern Appalachians on Thursday.
A large dip in the jet stream will develop over the eastern half of the country beginning Monday, which will open the door for arctic air to spill into the Lower 48.
The storm will develop from a potent clipper, taking advantage of that dip, swinging into the Great Lakes on Tuesday from Canada, bringing rain, snow, and colder air into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
As the clipper moves through the Great Lakes and Northeast from late Tuesday into Wednesday, it will drive a strong cold front southward into the Southeast.
The cold front is expected to stall Tuesday night into Wednesday, and ahead of it, a more organized area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Appalachians and parts of the Southeast.
As this low strengthens, colder air will be drawn southward while moisture wraps around the system, allowing for snow to break out across the Tennessee River Valley and southern Appalachians before expanding northward.
“The cold front associated with the clipper will play a key role throughout the storm’s evolution, acting as the main boundary that helps steer and organize the winter weather,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
As the front advances eastward, its own moisture and cold air could help expand snowfall into the Mid-Atlantic and New England by Thursday.
The storm will begin to transition as Thursday progresses.
The original cold front will gradually weaken, and a new, stronger area of low pressure will form along the Southeast coast.
How this process unfolds will largely determine the snowfall closer to the coast, including along the I-95 corridor.
The main forecast ingredients necessary for significant snow are how quickly cold air can reach the Northeast ahead of the storm, if there’s enough moisture available, and how close the storm will track to the coast.
If any one of these is missing, it would limit the amount of snow along I-95.
After a brief lull last week, this marks the return of the cold and stormy La Niña winter pattern, which even has people in traditional Midwest and Northeast snowbelts taking note.
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