The Thwaites Glacier, an enormous shelf of ice in the Antarctic, has been given the ominous nickname of the “Doomsday Glacier” — because if it were to change collapse, it could have profound implications for the future of sea level rise and the fate of coastal communities.
Scientists have watched in horror as its retreat has accelerated significantly. Now, as detailed in a study published by the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) and spotted by Wired, large cracks forming in the ice shelf are continuing to weaken its structural integrity. Doomsday has never been closer.
If it were to collapse under its own weight, scientists suggest it could ultimately trigger up to 11 feet of global sea level rise, meaning certain devastation for tens of millions of people.
Now, a team of researchers from the University of Manitoba have analyzed satellite data from 2002 to 2022, and observed how cracks in the Thwaites Glacier continued to grow around a shear zone.
“Over the past two decades, the shelf has experienced progressive fracturing around a prominent shear zone upstream of its pinning point, gradually compromising its structural integrity,” the paper reads.
Over the two decades, satellite images showed the “total area length of fractures” growing from around 100 miles to over 200 miles, but the average length actually decreased, suggesting major new stresses acting on the glacier.
A similarly alarming situation is playing out below the water line as well. Another recent study observed how warming ocean waters are melting ice shelves like the Thwaites Glacier, changes that can be tracked not just over years, but mere hours and days as well as swirling eddies of water that can measure up to six miles across spin and burrow underneath these glaciers.
The international team of researchers also identified a worrying feedback loop: new cold water from the ice shelf mixes with warmer saltier ocean waters, causing ocean turbulence, which in turn, melts even more ice.
“This positive feedback loop could gain intensity in a warming climate,” coauthor and UC San Diego assistant professor Lia Siegelman told CNN.
Scientists are still racing to fully understand the devastating effects of global warming on the Doomsday Glacier. One thing’s for sure: the prognosis isn’t great. According to the ITGC’s 2025 report, the glacier’s retreat has “accelerated considerably over the past 40 years.”
“Although a full collapse is unlikely to occur in the next few decades, our findings indicate it is set to retreat further, and faster, through the 21st and 22nd centuries,” the report reads.
“Immediate and sustained climate change mitigation (decarbonisation) offers the best hope of delaying this ice loss and avoiding initiation of similar unstable retreat in marine-based sectors of East Antarctica,” the group wrote.
More on glaciers: The Sounds of a Dying Glacier Might Make You Cry
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