Refund checks for Americans will be “gigantic” in the upcoming filing season because of the tax cuts included in President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted this week.
Bessent explained on the “All-In Podcast” that the tax provisions in the July law signed by Trump were retroactive to the beginning of the year and most workers did not adjust how much was deducted from their paychecks after the provisions went into effect, meaning they can expect a big refund when they file taxes in 2026.
“I can see that we’re gonna have a gigantic refund year in the first quarter because working Americans did not change their withholdings,” said Bessent, who also serves as acting commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).
“I think households could see, depending on the number of workers, $1,000- $2,000 refunds,” the treasury secretary continued.
Bessent’s prediction is in line with tax experts, who also say Americans can expect bigger refund checks.
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that in tax year 2025, the average refund check will be $3,800 — up from $3,004 in 2023 and $3,052 last year.
“When taxpayers file their 2025 tax returns in 2026, many will see larger refunds than in recent years. That’s due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which reduced individual income taxes for 2025 by an estimated $144 billion,” Tax Foundation’s Erica York said in an analysis.
“But because the IRS did not adjust withholding tables after the law passed, workers generally continued to withhold more taxes from their paychecks than the new law required. As a result, instead of gradually receiving the benefit of the tax cuts through higher take-home pay during the year, most taxpayers will receive it all at once when they file their returns,” she added.
Bessent noted that he expects workers will adjust their withholdings next year, which combined with the large refund checks, will boost their spending power.
“They will change their withholding schedule at the beginning of the year and they will get an automatic increase in real wages,” he said. “So I think that’s going to be a very powerful combo.”
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act included several provisions aimed at cutting individual income tax burdens, including increasing the child tax credit, standard deduction, state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap and adding deductions for auto loan interest and overtime and tip income.
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