It only took the European Union two years to start walking back its plan to ban all new gas and diesel automobiles by 2035. It’s an important reminder that government mandates are destined to disappoint in the fight against climate change.
Regulators in Brussels previously aimed to reduce tailpipe emissions by 100 percent past 2035, but they’ve now lowered their target to a still-unrealistic 90 percent reduction. The European Commission claims its rules are creating “a strong market signal for zero-emission vehicles,” but the state doesn’t speak for markets by warping them.
The commission practically admitted this as it detailed plans to soften its 2030 emission targets for vans, for which “the electric vehicle uptake has been structurally more difficult.” Indeed, there is little demand for electric vans, and governments cannot change that by fiat.
Ford’s parallel experience with electric vehicles is instructive. The company invested heavily in building an electric truck back when European governments were all-in on electrification and Joe Biden’s administration backed up overly ambitious emissions goals with expanded tax credits.
But Biden’s charging program, which envisioned a network of 500,000 charging stations by 2030, allowed red tape and union giveaways to slow progress. By this year, just 384 chargers had been built with the help of government grants. Without reliable places to charge on a trip, customers are reluctant to swap out their internal combustion engine for an electric motor.
“Range anxiety” proved especially disastrous for the Ford F-150 Lightning because it turned out that the electric truck’s range dropped precipitously when the trucks were hauling heavy loads. Then a new administration came in with less appetite for EV subsidies. Ford took a $19.5 billion write down on the program and sensibly reallocated its investment to hybrid vehicles.
EVs can build a consumer base. Some European carmakers, such as Volvo and Polestar, already produce financially viable models, which helps explain why they have pressed European lawmakers to “stand firm” on the 2035 ban. Yet they shouldn’t need government dictates if they sell a good enough product.
The reality is that progress is being made in the car market, and beyond as new technology makes clean energy more competitive with fossil fuels. Those forces of innovation will do far more for the energy transition than any government ever could.
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