Tariffs, a government shutdown, rising unemployment and persistent inflation have all added stress to the U.S. economy. And whether any of that might put a dent on consumer spending has been a subject of speculation.
At least part of the answer came on Tuesday when Mastercard released its annual data on holiday spending. Shoppers spent 3.9 percent more from Nov. 1 to Dec. 21 this year, compared with last year, according to the report, called SpendingPulse, which measures retail sales in stores and online through payment data.
The figures, which exclude automotive sales and are not adjusted for inflation, show that spending has remained resilient, with consumers visiting stores and restaurants even as prices have risen. Still, the report also showed that shoppers looked for value, comparing prices in stores and online, and buying items at a discount.
The results provide a peek into the mind-set of U.S. consumers as they enter 2026, trying to manage their households amid an uncertain economy.
Though Americans are dealing with the rising costs of groceries, child care and rent as job growth slows, many are still opening their wallets to buy holiday gifts and items on their own wish lists. Some are doing so by deferring the bill. According to an October PayPal report, half of consumers said they planned to use buy now, pay later plans to finance holiday purchases.
“There’s still consumers who are a little on edge,” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist of the Mastercard Economics Institute. “But that hasn’t constrained them from spending in the short term.”
Part of the squeeze on consumers has come from tariffs, with retailers in recent months passing on the costs of the duties to shoppers to protect their profit margins.
Target, Gap and Ikea have all said they’ve raised prices on some items in response to rising input costs. Retailers have worked to balance those costs with discounts to entice shoppers throughout the holidays.
Concerns about consumer spending swirled ahead of the holiday shopping season. The Commerce Department said that sales at U.S. retailers and restaurants were flat in October after seeing modest growth in September, but categories such as clothing and furniture stores remained strong.
As the holidays kicked off in November, Doug McMillon, Walmart’s chief executive, warned investors on a conference call that lower-income families — who rely more on cheaper, imported goods — had come under more pressure than wealthier ones, who were holding steady.
“As we look at our customers and members here in the U.S., they’re still spending, with upper and middle-income households driving our growth,” Mr. McMillon said.
But this holiday season, it was evident that consumers were still willing to spend whatever they could afford, according to the Mastercard report. The strength of the holiday numbers was considerable enough that the spending didn’t come solely from isolated pockets of wealthy shoppers, Ms. Meyer said.
More than 200 million people shopped on Thanksgiving weekend this year, a slight uptick from last year, according to the National Retail Federation, an industry trade group. Mastercard said that Black Friday retail sales in the United States grew 4.1 percent this year, driven by increased spending across categories including apparel and jewelry.
The clothing sector performed particularly well, with stores using discounts to lure shoppers. Holiday spending on apparel rose 7.8 percent, aided by cold snaps in parts of the country that prompted a refresh of winter wardrobes, according to Mastercard. Jewelry, a popular gifting category, jumped 1.6 percent.
The solid holiday numbers for apparel are a welcome sign for an industry that’s been battered by tariffs, which have ballooned import costs from production hubs such as China, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Once the shopping rush has ended, economists will be looking to data on returns as an indicator of whether consumers will stand by their holiday sprees, or exercise caution as the new year begins.
“Consumers will have to make decisions — substitutions, greater discounting moments, choosing where they can find the best value,” Ms. Meyer said. “That will continue into 2026.”
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