Winter forecasting season is here again, which means gathering the blizzard of snowfall predictions that swirl in. We collect them from all over — broadcast meteorologists, private-sector pros, Capital Weather Gang contributors and hundreds of readers who love to take their shot.
What’s striking this year is how divided the predictions are if you’re rooting for snow. La Niña is here, which tends to depress snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. However, this climate pattern may fade and some forecasters see other factors that could tilt the odds toward a snowy outcome.
Last winter, a week La Niña formed but fizzled, and D.C. managed its first winter with above normal snowfall in 6 years. The seasonal total of 14.9 inches topped the norm of 13.7 inches (based on the average total between 1991 and 2020).
Below, you’ll find a roundup of all the predictions. Just remember, seasonal snowfall forecasts have limited accuracy. They are essentially educated guesses, and experts don’t even have much of an edge over people with less knowledge.
Forecasts from TV meteorologists
Broadcast meteorologists for the four major local television affiliates are generally forecasting near normal amounts, with a range of 10 to 20 inches:
- ABC7 First Alert Weather: 10 to 15 inches;
- Doug Kammerer, NBC4: 13 to 20 inches;
- Mike Thomas and Tucker Barnes, FOX5: 12 to 18 inches;
- WUSA9 weather team: 10 to 20 inches.
Last winter, WUSA9 had the best forecast of this group, predicting 10 to 20 inches. The others were too conservative, forecasting just 4 to 13 inches.
Forecasters from private companies
We polled five meteorologists who specialize in seasonal forecasting, and all but one are predicting below-normal snowfall for the winter:
- Judah Cohen, Verisk AER: 10.6 inches;
- Todd Crawford, Atmospheric G2: 8.8 inches;
- Paul Dorian, Arcfield Weather: 18.5 inches;
- Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather: 11 inches;
- Matt Rogers, Commodity Weather Group: 10 inches.
Last winter, Dorian was the only meteorologist to correctly predict above-average snowfall. Time will tell if he’s right for a second straight year.
Forecasts from the Capital Weather Gang and its readers
Our own winter outlook projects slightly below-average snowfall, with 8 to 14 inches around the District and 10 to 18 inches in our colder suburbs.
We polled our readers for their predictions. Out of a total of 772 forecasts received from Capital Weather Gang readers, the average is 14.5 inches and the median is 13.2 inches.
Among the various snowfall ranges in the histogram chart above, 12 to 18 inches is most popular.
Six people predict no snow, while three are expecting a record-breaking 60 inches or more. In weather records that date to 1872, Washington’s two least snowy winters delivered 0.1 inches, while the snowiest winter on record was 56.1 inches in 2009-2010.
Among meteorologists and journalists who at least occasionally write for the Capital Weather Gang, the range of snowfall predictions is 9 to 22.5 inches. The average of the 14 forecasts is 14.0 inches. Camden Walker, the contributor with the most accurate forecast last year, predicts 17.1 inches.
With the polar vortex breaking down unusually early this season, winter could get off to a fast start. Many meteorologists are expecting a cold December and that could set the stage for snow. Incredibly, D.C. hasn’t seen an inch of December snow in eight years. Maybe this will be the year to end that streak.
Good luck to all who took a swing at forecasting, and let’s go snow!
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