CNN data guru Harry Enten revealed a stunning advantage for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms that he says should have Republicans “running scared.”
“This is a poll that came out yesterday, a Marquette University Law School poll, and I don’t think it picked up enough coverage that it should have, because these numbers should be truly frightening to Republicans,” said Enten on CNN News Central Thursday.
Enten, 37, explained that the poll finds Democrats hold a +5 advantage in generic ballot polling a year out from the 2026 midterms. Enten said this is “not a bad position, but it’s not as strong as they were in the 2018 cycle at this point.”
For Enten, the real noteworthy number was the Democrats’ advantage among “certain” voters. The Marquette poll reports, “Among those who say they are certain to vote, 53 percent say they will vote for a Democrat and 44 percent for a Republican.”
“We’re talking about a nine-point advantage, going from five to nine points, and this matches with what we’re seeing in other polls, which is huge Democratic enthusiasm. Huge,” said Enten. “What this suggests is Democrats are far more likely to turn out at this point. A nine-point advantage, going from five to nine. That is A+. Two thumbs up. Great news for Democrats.”
He then explained that this marks the first time in two decades that Democrat enthusiasm has polled ahead of Republican enthusiasm ahead of the midterm elections.
“In 2006, Republicans said they were more likely to turn out. 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and then all of a sudden in the 2026 cycle, look at this. Democrats are the ones who say they’re more likely to turn out and vote. So this does not match what we see historically,” Enten said.
When asked by CNN host Sara Sidner how the numbers might affect the outcome in the 2026 elections, Enten pointed to the 2025 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, suggesting that turnout and enthusiasm helped the Democratic candidates blow out their Republican opponents by double digits.
“Polls underestimated the Democrats,” said Enten. “In New Jersey, they underestimated Democrat Mikie Sherrill by eight. In Virginia, they underestimated the Democrat Abigail Spanberger by five… So you combine that with the generic ballot poll that we saw from Marquette University, Republicans should be running scared.”
Marquette’s poll is one of several post-2025 election polls that Enten says are troublesome for Republicans. The data guru has previously found that Trump’s dismal approval rating should have Republicans “scared s–tless” and that the president is a “drag” on Republican candidates.
Enten also said that the massive Democratic shifts in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races compared to the 2024 presidential race should tell the GOP the “house is on fire.”
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