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Disney is losing $30 million in revenue a week from its standoff with YouTube TV over rates, according to Morgan Stanley.
Sports fans may feel like the big losers from a carriage dispute that's kept Disney's TV networks, including ESPN and ABC, off YouTube TV since October 30. Until a deal is reached, YouTube TV subscribers will miss shows and games, including a high-profile "Monday Night Football" matchup.
The Mouse House and Google are also feeling the pain. Disney is likely to face a $60 million revenue shortfall from its YouTube TV blackout, Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne wrote in a Sunday note. That's based on the assumption that the standoff, which has gone on for 11 days so far, will last for 14 days.
In other words, Disney is losing $30 million a week, or about $4.3 million each day, because its channels aren't on YouTube TV, Swinburne estimates.
Disney has some ways to cushion the blow. It controls several YouTube TV alternatives like Hulu + Live TV, Fubo, and the stand-alone ESPN app. So, if customers cancel YouTube TV and sign up for one of Disney's rival services, it will get a new source of revenue and could benefit by owning the subscriber relationship.
Swinburne lowered his Disney quarterly net income estimate by $25 million, from $1.55 billion to $1.52 billion. That's a 1.6% drop, which translates to 2 cents per share. Disney will share quarterly results on Thursday.
YouTube TV is also feeling the impact of the blackout. Google has offered YouTube TV subscribers a $20 bill credit, although the rebate is not applied automatically and is only available to those who haven't canceled or paused their subscriptions.
If every one of YouTube TV's estimated 10 million subscribers took the $20 credit toward their next bill, it would cost Google about $200 million. However, some subscribers will miss the memo entirely, and YouTube TV is also saving money by not paying Disney for its channels.
Besides the rebate, YouTube TV could be losing out on revenue from subscribers who cancel the service as well.
Disney has said that Google is refusing to pay the going rate for its TV networks, while the tech giant has said it will have to raise YouTube TV prices again if it agrees to higher rates.
While sports fans who have YouTube TV would love to watch Disney's channels once again, at least they now know that misery has company.
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