Oil prices surged and U.S. stock futures declined as global markets reacted to American airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to the Associated Press.
Brent crude oil, the international standard, rose 2.6 percent to $79 per barrel, while U.S. crude climbed 2.6 percent to $75.76 per barrel.
Why It Matters
The U.S.’s strikes on Saturday marked its entry into the Iran-Israel conflict and were the biggest escalation in the war since Israel first ignited it by striking at Iran on June 13.
Iranian lawmakers voted to support closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to the strikes, which hit three Iranian nuclear and military sites. A final decision on the matter rests with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Nearly 20 percent of global oil trade passes through the Strait or Hormuz, a narrow but highly strategic waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
At its narrowest point, the strait is about 21 miles wide, with two shipping lanes that are 2 miles wide in each direction. Any closure of the channel is likely to result in a global spike in oil prices.
What To Know
There was some market uncertainty on Sunday evening, with futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 0.3 percent, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.5 percent.
Treasury yields remained little changed. The modest moves suggest markets are taking the latest developments in stride, though analysts expect continued volatility as the situation develops.
Iran’s strategic position controlling the Strait of Hormuz gives the country significant leverage over global energy markets. However, any Iranian retaliation that includes closing the waterway would likely be difficult to execute.
Traders remain concerned that Iran could severely disrupt transit through the strait, potentially sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move cargo without U.S. Navy escorts.
Complicating Iran’s decision is the country’s own dependence on the waterway.
Iran uses the strait to transport its own crude oil, mostly to China, and oil represents a major revenue source for the regime, creating economic incentives against closure.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday evening: “ANY RETALIATION BY IRAN AGAINST THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WILL BE MET WITH FORCE FAR GREATER THAN WHAT WAS WITNESSED TONIGHT. THANK YOU! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.”
Greg Kennedy, director of the Economic Conflict and Competition Research Group at King’s College London, told Newsweek: “This is not an act that just stays in the Gulf region, it has wider global strategic ripples.”
Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at energy consultancy Rystad, told the Financial Times on Sunday: “In an extreme scenario where Iran responds with direct strikes or targets regional oil infrastructure, oil prices will surge sharply. Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, markets are likely to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium.”
Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Saturday: “There are close to 50 large oil tankers scrambling to leave the Strait of Hormuz right now. Looks like the oil industry is expecting the Strait to be blockaded in the coming days.”
What Happens Next
Markets will closely monitor Iran’s response as trading opens Monday, with analysts remaining divided on the likelihood of strait closure.
The final decision about Iran’s response will be made by Khamenei; the parliament’s vote to close the strait merely advises him of the option to pursue.
Reporting from the Associated Press contributed to this article.
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