Stocks in Asia gained on Monday after weekend talks signaled that progress had been made in easing trade tensions between the United States and China.
Benchmark indexes in Japan and South Korea edged higher in early trading on Monday morning. Futures pointed to the S&P 500 gaining more than 1 percent when trading begins in New York.
Meetings in Geneva between U.S. and Chinese officials concluded on Sunday with Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, saying that “substantial progress” had been made. China’s vice premier, He Lifeng, called the talks “candid, in-depth and constructive.” Details are expected to be released on Monday, both sides said.
The meetings were the first between Washington and Beijing since President Trump ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent and China retaliated with its own taxes of 125 percent on U.S. goods. The tariffs are so high as to effectively block much of the trade between the two countries.
The escalating trade war has left financial markets uneasy, and the meeting raised investors’ hopes that tariffs could eventually be lowered.
Analysts at the financial services firm Wedbush Securities said the talks were a “positive step in the right direction.” They anticipated that an initial agreement, once unveiled during the U.S. day on Monday, would “at a minimum” involve a “much lower level” for tariffs.
Economists have warned that the tit-for-tat trade barriers have significantly increased the possibility of an economic downturn. That includes in Asia, where some of the biggest economies, including Japan and South Korea, are heavily reliant on both China and the United States as trade partners.
The World Trade Organization has forecast that the continuing division of the global economy into “rival blocs” could cut global gross domestic product by nearly 7 percent over the long run. Earlier this month, Japanese officials slashed their growth forecast for this year by more than half.
Last week, China reported that its exports to the United States in April dropped 21 percent from a year earlier. Recession warnings are beginning to emerge in the United States.
Heading into the weekend, investors had relatively low expectations for a breakthrough at the talks that would result in a meaningful reduction in tariffs. Many analysts expected the discussions to revolve around determining what each side wanted and how negotiations could move forward.
Recently, Mr. Trump has opened the door to lower tariffs. Last week, he suggested that tariffs could come down to 80 percent. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox News that so-called reciprocal tariffs on trade with China may settle near 34 percent.
River Akira Davis covers Japan, including its economy and businesses, and is based in Tokyo.
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