Russian troops in eastern Ukraine have seized at least 10 villages and settlements in roughly as many days, according to a group with ties to the Ukrainian Army that maps the battlefield, as Moscow presses on with slow but steady advances that have heightened pressure on Ukraine’s authorities to start cease-fire talks.
The situation looks particularly precarious for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, in Ukraine’s east, where Russian forces are closing in on their last two strongholds in the southern part of the region, according to the analysis by the group, DeepState. The fall of the strongholds, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, could pave the way for a Russian takeover of the area, experts say.
Russia, which annexed Donetsk in 2022 and controls about two-thirds of the region, is seeking to consolidate power over the whole territory. It has concentrated its attacks in the south of the region, searching for weak points in the Ukrainian lines and attacking from many directions, giving outnumbered Ukrainian troops little choice but to withdraw.
“This is indeed the most difficult situation in almost three years of war,” Andrii Biletskyi, the commander of the Third Assault Brigade, one of Ukraine’s top fighting units, told the newspaper Ukrainska Pravda last week, referring to the overall state of the battlefield.
Since this summer, Russian troops have advanced in the Donetsk region at a pace unseen since 2022, capturing hundreds of miles of territory. Experts say the situation, although difficult, is not catastrophic for Ukraine because Russia has yet to reach any major city in the area.
Nevertheless, concerned about their losses, the Ukrainian authorities are warming up to the possibility of opening peace talks with Moscow, which is demanding that it be able to hold onto its gains in Ukraine.
In an interview with Sky News released on Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine suggested that a way to stop the “hot phase” of the war would be to let Ukraine join NATO and bring the land it controls under the protection of the military alliance. Kyiv would then try to reclaim the territory occupied by Russia “in a diplomatic way,” he said. It was one of Mr. Zelensky’s clearest concessions that the war could end without a quick return of occupied land, a sensitive issue in Ukraine.
NATO members have so far resisted extending an invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance during the war, concerned that it would make the alliance an active participant in the fighting. The prospects seem even dimmer with President-elect Donald J. Trump set to take office, as his team has signaled reluctance to support Ukraine’s membership in the near future.
The Russian advance in the east is also likely to complicate any discussions about Mr. Zelensky’s proposal, particularly regarding the territory that would fall under NATO’s protection, as Moscow is chipping away at it day after day.
Kurakhove is now at risk of being caught in a pincer movement, as Russian forces advance from the north and south and have entered its eastern outskirts. Russian troops have secured positions within five miles of the main supply road into Kurakhove, on both sides, according to DeepState and battlefield maps, enabling them to target Ukrainian forces and vehicles moving in with drones and artillery.
“The clock is already ticking. It won’t be weeks, maybe just days before the city will have to be abandoned,” Ivan Stupak a Ukrainian military expert, told Ukrainian television this past week, noting that almost 70 percent of Kurakhove was surrounded.
Russian forces are also advancing on the town of Velyka Novosilka, 20 miles southwest of Kurakhove. The Center for Defense Strategies, an independent Ukrainian research organization, said the town was a critical logistical hub for Ukrainian forces, one of the launch points for Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive last summer.
The Russian advance in southern Donetsk has also strengthened Moscow’s logistical routes into the vast land corridor it has captured in southern Ukraine. By pushing Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of key railways, Russian troops can now freely operate railway hubs like Volnovakha, about 28 miles south of Kurakhove, to move troops and matériel from the east to the south, experts say.
This advantage could support offensives in nearby areas, such as in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia was building up forces in preparation for a potential new assault.
Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the top commander of the Ukrainian Army, said on Friday during a visit to the southern Donetsk front that he was sending additional troops, ammunition and weapons to the units deployed there to fend off the Russian advance.
A recent positive note for Ukraine has been its continued defense of the territory it captured this summer in Russia’s western Kursk region, an area Mr. Zelensky views as a potential bargaining chip in negotiations with Moscow.
Though Russia has managed to retake at least a third of the land in Kursk over several months, recent counter-assaults aimed at driving out Ukrainian forces have made little progress, according to battlefield maps based on satellite images and videos of the fighting. Russian troops have also suffered heavier equipment losses than Ukraine has, including of armored fighting vehicles, according to Naalsio, an open-source intelligence researcher analyzing combat footage.
Oleksandr Musiienko, the head of the Center for Military Law Research, said Ukrainian forces had managed to stabilize their flanks in the area and secure logistical lines running back into Ukraine. But he cautioned that Russia may escalate efforts to reclaim the land, potentially deploying more troops, including from North Korea.
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