President-elect Donald J. Trump repeatedly promised voters that he would cut energy and electricity prices in half within 18 months of taking office.
His transition team is just now working on a strategy to accomplish this, according to three people familiar with the discussions who asked for anonymity to discuss internal conversations.
The emerging plan is a repackaging of Mr. Trump’s energy policy. Advisers think Mr. Trump can lower prices by boosting oil and gas production, which is already at record levels in the United States. To pump up production, he plans to quickly approve new drilling projects and pipeline construction and get rid of environmental regulations that the industry says add to its costs.
But energy industry experts noted that a president has limited tools to influence how much Americans pay at the pump, and even less leverage when it comes to electricity prices. More than a dozen experts said Mr. Trump’s strategy might succeed in lowering prices, but not enough to meet his goal.
“It can’t happen,” said Ed Hirs, an energy economist at the University of Houston.
“Good luck,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School.
“It is not completely impossible, but it is highly unlikely,” said Edmund Crooks, vice chair of the Americas for Woods Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm.
Karoline Leavitt, Mr. Trump’s spokeswoman, declined to discuss details but insisted Mr. Trump would halve energy prices. “He will deliver,” she said in a statement.
One lever that Mr. Trump intends to use is increasing production by swiftly approving drilling permits on federal lands and waters.
He also is expected to overhaul the National Environmental Policy Act, a bedrock environmental law, in ways that could exempt gas pipelines and other energy projects from environmental review. That’s something Mr. Trump tried in his first term, but it took three years to complete and was reversed by the Biden administration.
People close to the Trump transition insisted that those measures would “unleash” millions more barrels of U.S. crude production.
Energy analysts agreed that supply would most likely rise under the Trump administration, and that prices would drop. But most said it would not cut gas prices in half.
“The U.S. is part of a well-integrated oil market, and the number one factor that drives prices is global conditions,” Mr. Crooks said. “Is it possible that U.S. production would rise enough to cut prices in half in a sustained way? No. That’s highly unlikely.”
If it did, Mr. Crooks and others said, it would invite different problems. Getting prices as low as Mr. Trump envisions could make it unprofitable for energy companies.
Economists said the minimum price at which oil operators can drill without incurring a loss was around $45 to $50 a barrel. Currently the price of a barrel of oil is about $70.
If it were to drop to half, “at that price, you’re shutting down production,” said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.
Mr. Trump has also pledged to eliminate all of the Biden administration’s regulations aimed at limiting carbon emissions from tailpipes, smokestacks and oil and gas wells. That could save utilities and oil companies billions of dollars.
“It’s hard to overestimate how improved the regulatory and policy environment for oil and gas is going to be,” said Bob McNally, the president of the research firm Rapidan Energy Group and a White House energy adviser in the George W. Bush administration.
But Mr. McNally also said deregulation combined with rapid approvals of new drilling would not result in immediate increases in production or deep savings for consumers.
“I’ve looked for the magic wand to lower prices,” Mr. McNally said. “I couldn’t find it.”
When it comes to electricity prices, which vary by location, about 40 percent are distrib”himution and transmission costs that don’t fluctuate with policy, said Chris Seiple, vice chairman of Wood Mackenzie’s Power & Renewables group.
Less expensive gas could lower electricity bills but not by half, he said.
Both Mr. Seiple and Mr. Bordoff argued that speeding up the construction of transmission lines and gas pipelines would help lower electricity costs because it would help add more capacity to the grid.
But another one of Mr. Trump’s promises — to boost liquefied natural gas exports — could swing the price pendulum the other direction. If European or Asian nations are willing to pay a higher price for U.S. gas, it could raise prices domestically, which would be reflected in higher electricity bills, analysts said.
On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump repeated his pledge to halve electricity and gas prices more than four dozen times. But he also gave himself an out.
“We intend to slash prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months,” Mr. Trump said. “And if it doesn’t work out, you say, oh, well, I voted for him. I still got it down a lot.”
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