Ann Selzer, the pollster behind the Iowa poll that unexpectedly predicted a November 5 victory for Kamala Harris in the state, has responded to criticism from Donald Trump.
The former president took to his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday, writing, “No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP 10 POINTS IN IOWA. THANK YOU!”
The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, was released Saturday. It found that 47 percent of Iowa voters supported Harris and 44 percent supported Trump. This is starkly different from other polls, which have Trump in the lead, including the poll by Emerson College, also released Saturday, which gives him a 9-point lead.
Selzer has a reputation for being highly accurate when it comes to last-minute polls with surprise results, especially when it comes to Iowa. Her poll released just before the 2020 election found Trump leading with 48 percent, and Biden at 41 percent. Trump won Iowa with 53 percent of the vote to Biden’s 45 percent.
Selzer responded to Trump’s post in an email to Newsweek, saying, “These are the kinds of comments seen for virtually any poll, including mine. The Des Moines Register includes a methodology statement with each story they publish. It’s the same methodology used to show Trump winning Iowa in the final polls in 2016 and 2020. It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The Des Moines Register and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers.”
Newsweek has contacted the Trump campaign out of hours via email for comment.
Trump senior adviser Jason Miller commented on the Iowa poll that “every cycle there’s one idiotic survey,” according to X posts from reporters at CNN and NBC.
Selzer’s poll surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters between October 28 and 31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 point, which Harris’ lead is within.
Pollster Nate Silver noted in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that while Selzer has a history of being right, “If you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong.”
Various Trump supporters have criticized the poll.
Conservative commentator Charlie Kirk called it “fake” in a post on X, saying, “This is a media-designed tactic to suppress turnout.
Joey Mannarino, whose X bio says he is a conservative political strategist, wrote, “Kamala Harris is not winning Iowa. I’m so certain of it I’ll castrate myself on camera if it happens. These people are just full of absolute s*** in the final days of this election.”
In the comments of his post, which has now accumulated over 1.1 million views, he added, “Weird how excited liberals get thinking of genital mutilation. Follow along if you think I’m kidding. There’s no way Kamala wins Iowa. I wouldn’t bet my balls on just anything.”
The account of a right-leaning commentary channel, Red Eagle Politics, also wrote on X, “Mathematically, this result should be at least a Trump+7, the same as their 2016 and 2020 polls. Same crossover. Ann Selzer is throwing away her reputation for a suppression poll. I’ll delete my channel if this result is even within seven points of reality.”
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