Watches and warnings were in effect across southern Louisiana and Alabama as Hurricane Francine barreled toward the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Forecasters expect the storm, a Category 1 hurricane, to bring significant storm surge and hurricane-force winds to the Louisiana coast before making landfall on Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Key things to know about Francine
The storm’s likely path edges to the east on Tuesday, and a hurricane watch, meaning hurricane conditions are possible, was issued for the New Orleans area. A more serious hurricane warning, meaning that conditions are expected, was in effect for part of the coast west of New Orleans, from Cameron to Grand Isle.
Forecasters believe the storm will continue to strengthen overnight and likely peak as a high-end Category 1 hurricane before landfall. Francine will approach the Louisiana coastline on Wednesday and most likely move ashore sometime on Wednesday afternoon or evening, forecasters said.
Weeks of rainfall have saturated the Louisiana coast like a sponge. Francine could bring up to eight more inches of rainfall, with a few locations measuring up to a foot, which could cause flash flooding concerns in the region. “The cities of Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans (along with their suburbs) would be most susceptible for flash flooding as hourly rain totals up to four inches (if not more) should be possible,” Weather Prediction Center forecasters warned Tuesday.
Storm surge and dangerous surf will also be a concern as the storm intensifies. A storm surge warning was in effect across the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Alabama-Mississippi border.
Gov. Jeff Landry of Louisiana said at a news conference on Tuesday that agencies across the state were working to prepare by positioning resources where they could be needed. Residents on Tuesday were picking up supplies to get through storm and protect their homes.
This hurricane season was expected to be busy.
Tuesday marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Forecasters had warned this spring that the season could be much more active than usual, with some saying they expected more than 20 named storms may form before it ends. But before Francine only five other storms had formed so far, and none in the last few weeks.
Alberto, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall on the northeastern coast of Mexico as a tropical storm on June 20, unleashing heavy rain, flooding and gusty winds. At least four people died in events related to the storm.
Beryl formed a little over a week later, on June 28, and became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record. It carved a path of destruction through the Caribbean before crossing into the Gulf of Mexico and hitting the Texas coast.
In July, Tropical Storm Chris formed just before making landfall in Mexico. Debby was the latest storm to make landfall, moving ashore on Aug. 5 in Florida, and then meandering around the southern United States with flooding rains for days. Ernesto followed shortly after, striking Bermuda, an island with experience weathering hurricanes, as a Category 1 hurricane on Aug. 18.
But the Atlantic went quiet after Ernesto. A quiet spell that significant has not been seen during this part of the season since 1968, according to Phil Klotzbach, a researcher of hurricane activity at Colorado State University.
Still, in August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continued its forecast of 17 to 24 named storms this year, an “above-normal” number and a prediction in line with more than a dozen forecasts earlier in the year from experts at universities, private companies and government agencies. Hurricane seasons produce 14 named storms on average from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The seasonal hurricane outlooks were notably aggressive because forecasters looking at the start of the season saw a combination of circumstances that didn’t exist in records dating back to the mid-1800s: record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the potential formation of the weather pattern known as La Niña.
La Niña occurs in the Pacific because of changing ocean temperatures, and it affects weather patterns globally. When it is strong, it typically provides a calm environment in the Atlantic; this allows storms to develop more easily and to strengthen without interference from wind patterns that might otherwise keep them from organizing.
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