More voters would rather have a drink with Vice President Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, according to a new poll.
A Bullfinch survey of 1,500 registered voters, spread equally across the three key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, showed that 40 percent overall would prefer to drink with Harris, compared to 36 percent for Trump. More than one in five voters (21 percent) said they would rather drink alone than with either the Democratic or Republican presidential hopefuls.
The polling question is a version of the so-called “beer question,” which is essentially used to determine if a presidential candidate is likable and can appeal to the average voter. Trump has famously not drunk alcohol for decades, which may explain the rewording of the question.
While more of a thought experiment than a scientific forecast, the previous winners of the beer question have gone on to win their respective elections.
In 2016, a Rasmussen Reports survey found that 45 percent of likely voters said they would prefer to have a beer with Trump over his Democratic election rival Hillary Clinton (37 percent).
In 2008, polls suggested Barack Obama was the candidate whom voters would rather have a beer with over his Republican challenger, John McCain.
George W. Bush won reelection in 2004 as he was widely considered the guy “you’d rather have a beer with” over John Kerry. A 2004 Zogby/Williams Identity poll that year found that 57 percent of undecided voters would rather have a beer with Bush than Kerry.
Bush passed the beer question test despite being teetotal for years by the time of the 2004 election.
The beer question did not appear to feature widely in the 2020 campaign, as President Joe Biden also doesn’t drink.
The Trump and Harris campaign teams were contacted for comment via email.
In a 2016 opinion piece for Slate, writer and author Seth Stevenson suggested Trump could pass the beer question test for being “entertaining company,” while questioning if this makes the Republican likable.
“I think Trump voters would flock to him at their corner tavern like high school beta males flock to the cafeteria table headed by the alpha dude in a letter jacket. They turn their faces to him with awe. He mocks their adversaries. Trump promises again and again that we will ‘beat’ China, and Mexico, and ISIS,” Stevenson wrote.
“For the people who want to drink with Trump, he is their champion. He assures them that, as long as they’re hanging with him, they’re champions, too. Nothing tastes better than an ice-cold bottle of winning.”
Crucially, the Bullfinch survey also showed Harris beating Trump in the three swing states, which could prove vital for her 2024 election hopes.
The poll shows Harris with a 9 point lead over Trump in Wisconsin (51 percent to 42 percent), a 4 point lead in Pennsylvania (49 percent to 45 percent) and a 5 point advantage in Michigan (48 percent to 43 percent).
The survey also shows Trump has a net favorable rating in the three swing states of minus 14 percent. Harris records both a favorable and unfavorable rating of 49 percent.
The Bullfinch survey was conducted August 8-11 among 500 registered voters in each state. The results have a margin or error of plus or minus 2.53 percent in total, and plus or minus 4.38 percent per state.
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