Tropical Storm Debby will surge northward on Thursday afternoon, diminishing in power but still threatening to bring isolated severe storms, heavy rain, flooding and even the chance of brief tornadoes by Friday to New York City and the Northeast.
Debby’s arrival comes on the heels of a thunderstorm this week that inundated highways and led to power outages throughout the metropolitan region. Earlier storms in the area this spring and summer have snarled traffic at the city’s airports, cut electricity to tens of thousands of people in New York State and prompted criticism of the city’s storm response system, which can be overwhelmed anytime it rains more than 1.75 inches per hour.
For all the damage that Debby’s slow, meandering course has brought to the Southern United States, however, the New York area is likely to experience significantly fewer problems over the next few days as the storm’s path straightens and speeds up. Only one to two inches of rain are expected to fall across the five boroughs through Saturday morning.
Here is what is likely to occur over the next few days.
Thursday: Surges of light rainfall through the evening
Light and scattered rainfall is most likely to continue across the city through the evening hours. As Debby’s tropical air mass surges into the region, some brief downpours, especially late tonight and into Friday morning, could occur.
Friday: The worst may come after a reprieve from Debby
By the early morning, as cooler air attempts to push into the region, Debby will most likely become the type of storm system that moves through the Northeast during the summer months. Debby’s tropical moisture is likely to enhance some of the precipitation that falls, especially near the storm’s core in upstate New York and Vermont, where the heaviest rain will probably fall. Debby will track along the spine of the central Appalachians, where two to four inches of rain are expected through Friday night. Some local areas could see as much as six inches of precipitation.
Back in New York City, rainfall rates should be more subdued. Showers and possibly some thunderstorms may occur Friday morning, especially west and north of the city. By the afternoon, there may even be a break in the rain, especially in the city and to the east.
By the evening, a line of thunderstorms more associated with the cooler air being ushered into the area than Debby itself will bring the heaviest rain. Depending on the intensity of the rainfall, there is some potential for scattered flooding in urban areas with poor drainage and along rivers and streams.
Outside of the strong winds produced by any thunderstorms that form, additional southerly winds may gust up to 35 to 45 miles per hour along the coast Friday afternoon and through the night, leading to some minor tree damage and isolated power outages. Some ocean churn could also occur, creating high surf and a high risk of rip currents along the beaches into Saturday.
The weekend: Possibly some of the best weather in weeks
Expect the weekend to be rain-free, less muggy and quite pleasant overall, with plenty of sunshine and average-to-below-average temperatures.
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